2026 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

23·17

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+0.2est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChargers
  • -0.040EPA / play-0.209
  • 37.9%Success rate36.9%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback-0.191
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.235
  • 6.4%Explosive rate6.6%
  • -2.61CPOE-5.83
  • 31.4%Third-down rate33.8%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.22
  • 1.2%Turnover rate3.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. LAC are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18LAC @ DEN3–19DEN
2025 · W3DEN @ LAC20–23CHARGERS
2024 · W16DEN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2024 · W6LAC @ DEN23–16CHARGERS
2023 · W17LAC @ DEN9–16DEN
2023 · W14DEN @ LAC24–7DEN
2022 · W18LAC @ DEN28–31DEN
2022 · W6DEN @ LAC16–19CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–LAC
DENQ1 15:00929Punt0–0
LACQ1 9:55319Turnover0–0
DENQ1 8:36438Touchdown7–0
LACQ1 6:53519Punt7–0
DENQ1 4:0533Punt7–0
LACQ1 1:2743Punt7–0
DENQ2 14:5237Punt7–0
LACQ2 13:13933Field goal7–3
DENQ2 8:181546Field goal10–3
LACQ2 1:4830Punt10–3
DENQ2 1:2156End of half10–3
LACQ3 15:001693Touchdown10–10
DENQ3 5:3234Punt10–10
LACQ3 4:0865Punt10–10
DENQ3 1:1511Turnover10–16
LACQ3 1:07142Touchdown10–17
DENQ3 0:5734Punt10–17
LACQ4 14:4931Punt10–17
DENQ4 13:0333Missed field goal10–17
LACQ4 12:0549Turnover on downs10–17
DENQ4 10:27535Touchdown17–17
LACQ4 8:532-9Turnover17–17
DENQ4 7:55422Field goal20–17
LACQ4 5:0744Turnover20–17
DENQ4 3:19426Field goal23–17
LACQ4 1:08618End of half23–17

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix16/2712310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins18683.81
Bo Nix4102.50
Jaylen Waddle199.00
RJ Harvey372.30
Tyler Badie166.00
Marvin Mims Jr.133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram44550
Jaylen Waddle25190
Courtland Sutton23181
Troy Franklin22160
Lil'Jordan Humphrey1280
J.K. Dobbins2260
Marvin Mims Jr.2260
RJ Harvey0100
Tyler Badie11-50

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert14/2412111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kimani Vidal8577.11
Justin Herbert6549.00
Omarion Hampton14332.40
Keaton Mitchell6111.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charlie Kolar34370
Marquez Valdes-Scantling23220
Keaton Mitchell34180
Theo Wease Jr.11160
Tre Harris24160
Hayden Rucci1171
Omarion Hampton1160
Oronde Gadsden II0100
Kimani Vidal12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.6%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.21