2025 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Trey Lance

3·19

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

DEN -14.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+6.2est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapBroncos
  • -0.016EPA / play+0.036
  • 43.6%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.021EPA / dropback+0.097
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.069
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +0.01CPOE-1.38
  • 46.7%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 48.9%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
  • 2.10Points / drive2.10
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DEN @ LAC23–17DEN
2025 · W3DEN @ LAC20–23CHARGERS
2024 · W16DEN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2024 · W6LAC @ DEN23–16CHARGERS
2023 · W17LAC @ DEN9–16DEN
2023 · W14DEN @ LAC24–7DEN
2022 · W18LAC @ DEN28–31DEN
2022 · W6DEN @ LAC16–19CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–DEN
LACQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:581481Field goal0–3
LACQ1 5:0635Opp touchdown0–10
LACQ1 3:39412Punt0–10
DENQ1 1:5535Punt0–10
LACQ1 0:3039Punt0–10
DENQ2 14:11615Punt0–10
LACQ2 10:25619Punt0–10
DENQ2 6:46718Punt0–10
LACQ2 2:561061Field goal3–10
DENQ2 0:0300End of half3–10
DENQ3 15:0036Punt3–10
LACQ3 14:0832Punt3–10
DENQ3 13:11652Field goal3–13
LACQ3 10:0764Punt3–13
DENQ3 6:0637Punt3–13
LACQ3 3:31613Punt3–13
DENQ3 0:3738Punt3–13
LACQ4 13:291-4Turnover3–13
DENQ4 13:213-2Field goal3–16
LACQ4 11:45831Turnover on downs3–16
DENQ4 7:57952Field goal3–19
LACQ4 2:231559Turnover on downs3–19
DENQ4 0:1600End of half3–19

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trey Lance20/4413601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trey Lance9697.70
Jaret Patterson8293.60
Kimani Vidal3124.00
Hassan Haskins133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen713360
Tre Harris26280
KeAndre Lambert-Smith25240
Oronde Gadsden II22230
Jaret Patterson3480
Derius Davis1170
Will Dissly1560
Tyler Conklin1160
Kimani Vidal11-20

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix14/2314100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bo Nix8496.10
Jaleel McLaughlin6416.80
RJ Harvey15281.90
Tyler Badie2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram34450
Pat Bryant45310
Tyler Badie22280
Jaleel McLaughlin12170
Marvin Mims Jr.23100
Courtland Sutton1250
RJ Harvey1450
Troy Franklin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.57.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

1.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.4%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.37
  • Rest differential+0.16
  • Expected margin+6.20