Closing spread
DEN -14.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+6.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play+0.036
- 43.6%Success rate43.7%
- +0.021EPA / dropback+0.097
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.069
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.1%
- +0.01CPOE-1.38
- 46.7%Third-down rate42.4%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
- 2.10Points / drive2.10
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Lance | 20/44 | 136 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Lance | 9 | 69 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 7 | 13 | 36 | 0 |
| Tre Harris | 2 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 14/23 | 141 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 8 | 49 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 15 | 28 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Pat Bryant | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.4%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.37
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin+6.20