Closing spread
LAC -3
Total
37
Model margin
+1.9est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play+0.011
- 42.3%Success rate42.8%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.062
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.075
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.0%
- +1.69CPOE+0.58
- 40.1%Third-down rate40.4%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 2.25Points / drive2.16
- 0.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 21/34 | 237 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 25 | 96 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Derius Davis | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simi Fehoko | 2 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Ladd McConkey | 4 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 2 | 2 | 40 | 1 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 19/33 | 216 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 6 | 61 | 10.2 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Audric Estimé | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devaughn Vele | 4 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 6 | 53 | 1 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Lucas Krull | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Nate Adkins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.88