2024 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

23·16

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

LAC -3

Total

37

Model margin

+1.9est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapBroncos
  • +0.044EPA / play+0.011
  • 42.3%Success rate42.8%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback+0.062
  • -0.079EPA / rush-0.075
  • 9.2%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +1.69CPOE+0.58
  • 40.1%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 2.25Points / drive2.16
  • 0.8%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DEN @ LAC23–17DEN
2025 · W18LAC @ DEN3–19DEN
2025 · W3DEN @ LAC20–23CHARGERS
2024 · W16DEN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2023 · W17LAC @ DEN9–16DEN
2023 · W14DEN @ LAC24–7DEN
2022 · W18LAC @ DEN28–31DEN
2022 · W6DEN @ LAC16–19CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–DEN
DENQ1 15:0032Turnover0–0
LACQ1 13:37939Field goal3–0
DENQ1 9:2639Punt3–0
LACQ1 7:52683Touchdown10–0
DENQ1 4:59615Punt10–0
LACQ1 1:502069Field goal13–0
DENQ2 6:21526Turnover13–0
LACQ2 4:321156Touchdown20–0
DENQ2 1:0048Punt20–0
LACQ2 0:0800End of half20–0
LACQ3 15:00612Punt20–0
DENQ3 10:59838Punt20–0
LACQ3 7:331063Field goal23–0
DENQ3 2:353-10Punt23–0
LACQ3 0:4433Punt23–0
DENQ4 14:09895Touchdown23–7
LACQ4 10:0631Punt23–7
DENQ4 8:25864Touchdown23–13
LACQ4 5:22727Punt23–13
DENQ4 2:26769Field goal23–16
LACQ4 0:5900End of half23–16

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert21/3423710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins25963.81
Derius Davis2147.00
Kimani Vidal4112.80
Hassan Haskins252.50
Justin Herbert420.50
Quentin Johnston100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Simi Fehoko24440
Ladd McConkey48430
Kimani Vidal22401
Josh Palmer23380
Will Dissly45260
Quentin Johnston34220
Stone Smartt11100
Derius Davis1280
J.K. Dobbins2260

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix19/3321621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bo Nix66110.20
Javonte Williams6233.80
Audric Estimé2136.50
Jaleel McLaughlin382.70
Troy Franklin155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devaughn Vele46780
Courtland Sutton46531
Troy Franklin23311
Jaleel McLaughlin22170
Javonte Williams36130
Lucas Krull24110
Lil'Jordan Humphrey1180
Nate Adkins1150
Marvin Mims Jr.0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

7.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.1%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.88