2023 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

24·7

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -3

Total

45

Model margin

-0.1est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChargers
  • -0.046EPA / play-0.070
  • 42.3%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.005EPA / dropback+0.018
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.242
  • 8.6%Explosive rate6.9%
  • +3.74CPOE-1.84
  • 36.8%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.75
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. LAC are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DEN @ LAC23–17DEN
2025 · W18LAC @ DEN3–19DEN
2025 · W3DEN @ LAC20–23CHARGERS
2024 · W16DEN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2024 · W6LAC @ DEN23–16CHARGERS
2023 · W17LAC @ DEN9–16DEN
2022 · W18LAC @ DEN28–31DEN
2022 · W6DEN @ LAC16–19CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–LAC
LACQ1 15:0054Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:1010Turnover0–0
LACQ1 12:0747Turnover on downs0–0
DENQ1 10:47851Punt0–0
LACQ1 5:5033Turnover6–0
DENQ1 5:0013Touchdown7–0
LACQ1 4:55419Punt7–0
DENQ1 2:30617Punt7–0
LACQ2 13:3954Punt7–0
DENQ2 11:22621Punt7–0
LACQ2 8:101053Turnover on downs7–0
DENQ2 3:1147Punt7–0
LACQ2 1:5233Punt7–0
DENQ2 1:28960Field goal10–0
LACQ2 0:0500End of half10–0
DENQ3 15:0039Punt10–0
LACQ3 12:38838Turnover on downs10–0
DENQ3 8:07460Touchdown17–0
LACQ3 5:5536Punt17–0
DENQ3 4:57617Punt17–0
LACQ3 1:361142Turnover on downs17–0
DENQ4 13:5536Punt17–0
LACQ4 12:21691Touchdown17–7
DENQ4 10:371375Touchdown24–7
LACQ4 3:11613Turnover24–7
DENQ4 1:4400End of half24–7

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson21/3322421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams17663.91
Jaleel McLaughlin5255.00
Samaje Perine284.00
Russell Wilson650.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton34621
Samaje Perine55360
Lucas Krull11350
Javonte Williams34250
Adam Trautman23191
Jerry Jeudy26160
Lil'Jordan Humphrey11120
Marvin Mims Jr.23110
Jaleel McLaughlin1270

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Easton Stick13/2417900
Justin Herbert9/179601
Keenan Allen0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler10515.11
Isaiah Spiller6193.20
Joshua Kelley362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quentin Johnston34910
Keenan Allen612680
Austin Ekeler57490
Gerald Everett58390
Donald Parham12110
Alex Erickson1790
Jalen Guyton1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.8%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.09