Closing spread
LAC -3
Total
45
Model margin
-0.1est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.070
- 42.3%Success rate41.4%
- -0.005EPA / dropback+0.018
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.242
- 8.6%Explosive rate6.9%
- +3.74CPOE-1.84
- 36.8%Third-down rate38.3%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
- 1.87Points / drive1.75
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. LAC are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 21/33 | 224 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 4 | 62 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 5 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Lucas Krull | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Easton Stick | 13/24 | 179 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 9/17 | 96 | 0 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | 3 | 4 | 91 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 6 | 12 | 68 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.79
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.09