2024 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

27·34

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChargers
  • +0.011EPA / play+0.044
  • 42.8%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.062EPA / dropback+0.127
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.079
  • 9.0%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +0.58CPOE+1.69
  • 40.4%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 2.16Points / drive2.25
  • 1.8%Turnover rate0.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. LAC are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DEN @ LAC23–17DEN
2025 · W18LAC @ DEN3–19DEN
2025 · W3DEN @ LAC20–23CHARGERS
2024 · W6LAC @ DEN23–16CHARGERS
2023 · W17LAC @ DEN9–16DEN
2023 · W14DEN @ LAC24–7DEN
2022 · W18LAC @ DEN28–31DEN
2022 · W6DEN @ LAC16–19CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–LAC
LACQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:301074Touchdown7–0
LACQ1 7:34870Touchdown7–7
DENQ1 3:091270Touchdown14–7
LACQ2 12:17751Field goal14–10
DENQ2 8:50675Touchdown21–10
LACQ2 6:2237Punt21–10
DENQ2 5:00419Punt21–10
LACQ2 2:34749Turnover21–10
DENQ2 0:413-2Punt21–13
LACQ2 0:0000Field goal21–13
DENQ3 15:001049Field goal24–13
LACQ3 8:311064Touchdown24–19
DENQ3 2:5833Punt24–19
LACQ3 0:45958Touchdown24–27
DENQ4 12:23620Punt24–27
LACQ4 9:4864Punt24–27
DENQ4 6:4134Punt24–27
LACQ4 4:28690Touchdown24–34
DENQ4 2:27743Field goal27–34
LACQ4 0:5710Turnover on downs27–34

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix29/4026320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Audric Estimé9485.31
Bo Nix3258.30
Javonte Williams4246.00
Blake Watson4102.50
Marvin Mims Jr.133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Mims Jr.35620
Courtland Sutton56500
Javonte Williams711290
Troy Franklin23250
Lucas Krull33210
Devaughn Vele23211
Nate Adkins22180
Blake Watson12130
Adam Trautman1150

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert23/3128421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards14684.92
Justin Herbert8283.50
Kimani Vidal5244.80
Derius Davis1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ladd McConkey66870
Josh Palmer36410
Hassan Haskins22391
Stone Smartt33370
Derius Davis22311
Quentin Johnston36180
Tucker Fisk11100
Hayden Hurst1180
Gus Edwards1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.7%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.97