Closing spread
LAC -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.044
- 42.8%Success rate42.3%
- +0.062EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.079
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.2%
- +0.58CPOE+1.69
- 40.4%Third-down rate40.1%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 2.16Points / drive2.25
- 1.8%Turnover rate0.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. LAC are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 29/40 | 263 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audric Estimé | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Bo Nix | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Blake Watson | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 3 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 7 | 11 | 29 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Lucas Krull | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Nate Adkins | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Blake Watson | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 23/31 | 284 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 14 | 68 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Justin Herbert | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 6 | 6 | 87 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 2 | 2 | 39 | 1 |
| Stone Smartt | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 2 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Quentin Johnston | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Tucker Fisk | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.73
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.97