2022 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

28·31

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

DEN -6

Total

38.5

Model margin

-0.4est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapBroncos
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.077
  • 44.1%Success rate39.4%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.057EPA / rush-0.124
  • 6.9%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +1.13CPOE-1.65
  • 43.5%Third-down rate29.1%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.34
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DEN @ LAC23–17DEN
2025 · W18LAC @ DEN3–19DEN
2025 · W3DEN @ LAC20–23CHARGERS
2024 · W16DEN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2024 · W6LAC @ DEN23–16CHARGERS
2023 · W17LAC @ DEN9–16DEN
2023 · W14DEN @ LAC24–7DEN
2022 · W6DEN @ LAC16–19CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–DEN
LACQ1 15:00875Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 11:171556Touchdown7–7
LACQ1 3:5536Punt7–7
DENQ1 2:3033Punt7–7
LACQ1 1:371254Touchdown14–7
DENQ2 10:574-9Punt14–7
LACQ2 8:11425Turnover14–7
DENQ2 6:12634Field goal14–10
LACQ2 2:43515Punt14–10
DENQ2 1:3535Punt14–10
LACQ2 1:08518Field goal17–10
DENQ2 0:26375Touchdown17–17
LACQ2 0:0600End of half17–17
DENQ3 15:00675Touchdown17–24
LACQ3 11:42422Punt17–24
DENQ3 9:57352Turnover17–24
LACQ3 8:50428Field goal20–24
DENQ3 6:42420Punt20–24
LACQ3 4:27973Turnover20–24
DENQ3 0:21895Touchdown20–31
LACQ4 11:1537Punt20–31
LACQ4 9:05629Touchdown28–31
DENQ4 6:02319Punt28–31
LACQ4 4:1631Punt28–31
DENQ4 3:14746End of half28–31

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert25/3727320
Chase Daniel5/72510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler11343.10
Joshua Kelley5183.60
Chase Daniel144.00
Larry Rountree III341.30
Justin Herbert2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen8111022
DeAndre Carter35430
Josh Palmer46390
Austin Ekeler44360
Mike Williams45320
Donald Parham22310
Gerald Everett3581
Joshua Kelley1460
Larry Rountree III1110
Tre' McKitty0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson13/2428331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray151036.91
Chase Edmonds9455.00
Jerry Jeudy33913.00
Russell Wilson8182.30
Tyler Badie100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy561540
Freddie Swain23540
Courtland Sutton37331
Tyler Badie11241
Latavius Murray11150
Eric Tomlinson1131
Albert Okwuegbunam0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.6%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.0%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.38