Closing spread
DEN -6
Total
38.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.077
- 44.1%Success rate39.4%
- +0.037EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.057EPA / rush-0.124
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.7%
- +1.13CPOE-1.65
- 43.5%Third-down rate29.1%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
- 1.97Points / drive1.34
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 25/37 | 273 | 2 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 5/7 | 25 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Larry Rountree III | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 11 | 102 | 2 |
| DeAndre Carter | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 3 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Larry Rountree III | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tre' McKitty | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 13/24 | 283 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 15 | 103 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 39 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 5 | 6 | 154 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 2 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 7 | 33 | 1 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.38