2025 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

20·23

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChargers
  • +0.036EPA / play-0.016
  • 43.7%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.097EPA / dropback+0.021
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.080
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -1.38CPOE+0.01
  • 42.4%Third-down rate46.7%
  • 62.1%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
  • 2.10Points / drive2.10
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. LAC are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DEN @ LAC23–17DEN
2025 · W18LAC @ DEN3–19DEN
2024 · W16DEN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2024 · W6LAC @ DEN23–16CHARGERS
2023 · W17LAC @ DEN9–16DEN
2023 · W14DEN @ LAC24–7DEN
2022 · W18LAC @ DEN28–31DEN
2022 · W6DEN @ LAC16–19CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–LAC
LACQ1 15:00838Field goal0–3
DENQ1 11:5437Punt0–3
LACQ1 10:16823Punt0–3
DENQ1 6:5549Punt0–3
LACQ1 4:483-8Punt0–3
DENQ1 2:353-2Punt0–3
LACQ1 1:401261Turnover0–3
DENQ2 10:23728Punt0–3
LACQ2 5:50954Touchdown0–10
DENQ2 1:53772Touchdown7–10
LACQ2 0:38411Punt7–10
DENQ2 0:0400End of half7–10
DENQ3 15:00366Touchdown14–10
LACQ3 13:4000Field goal14–10
DENQ3 13:3236Field goal17–10
LACQ3 12:021651Field goal17–13
DENQ3 5:3531Punt17–13
LACQ3 3:3835Punt17–13
DENQ3 2:111056Field goal20–13
LACQ4 12:21937Punt20–13
DENQ4 7:45523Punt20–13
LACQ4 5:08761Touchdown20–20
DENQ4 2:3730Punt20–20
LACQ4 1:43743Field goal20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix14/2515310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins11837.51
Bo Nix8334.10
RJ Harvey221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton681181
RJ Harvey33140
Lucas Krull1290
Troy Franklin2480
Marvin Mims Jr.1440
J.K. Dobbins1200

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert28/4730011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Omarion Hampton19703.71
Najee Harris6284.70
Justin Herbert263.00
Derius Davis122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quentin Johnston69890
Keenan Allen711651
Omarion Hampton67590
Oronde Gadsden II57460
Ladd McConkey47410
Tyler Conklin0200
Tucker Fisk0100
Tre Harris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.66