Closing spread
LAC -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play-0.016
- 43.7%Success rate43.6%
- +0.097EPA / dropback+0.021
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.080
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- -1.38CPOE+0.01
- 42.4%Third-down rate46.7%
- 62.1%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 2.10Points / drive2.10
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. LAC are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 14/25 | 153 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 11 | 83 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Bo Nix | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 6 | 8 | 118 | 1 |
| RJ Harvey | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Lucas Krull | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 28/47 | 300 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | 19 | 70 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Najee Harris | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | 6 | 9 | 89 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 7 | 11 | 65 | 1 |
| Omarion Hampton | 6 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Ladd McConkey | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tucker Fisk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.66