2023 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Easton Stick

9·16

Broncos

Denver

QB Jarrett Stidham

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+8.3est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapBroncos
  • -0.070EPA / play-0.046
  • 41.4%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.018EPA / dropback-0.005
  • -0.242EPA / rush-0.110
  • 6.9%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -1.84CPOE+3.74
  • 38.3%Third-down rate36.8%
  • 54.8%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.87
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DEN @ LAC23–17DEN
2025 · W18LAC @ DEN3–19DEN
2025 · W3DEN @ LAC20–23CHARGERS
2024 · W16DEN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2024 · W6LAC @ DEN23–16CHARGERS
2023 · W14DEN @ LAC24–7DEN
2022 · W18LAC @ DEN28–31DEN
2022 · W6DEN @ LAC16–19CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–DEN
LACQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:51614Punt0–0
LACQ1 11:2134Punt0–0
DENQ1 9:441058Field goal0–3
LACQ1 3:55526Punt0–3
DENQ1 2:14916Punt0–3
LACQ2 13:15742Field goal3–3
DENQ2 9:43675Touchdown3–10
LACQ2 6:37729Turnover on downs3–10
DENQ2 2:51517Field goal3–13
LACQ2 1:53833Punt3–13
DENQ2 0:24355Missed field goal3–13
DENQ3 15:00620Punt3–13
LACQ3 10:47853Field goal6–13
DENQ3 6:20821Punt6–13
LACQ3 1:44526Turnover6–13
DENQ4 14:53718Field goal6–16
LACQ4 11:191143Missed field goal6–16
DENQ4 6:19721Punt6–16
LACQ4 2:59837Field goal9–16
DENQ4 1:1700End of half9–16

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Easton Stick24/3822000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler13463.50
Easton Stick5316.20
Gerald Everett166.00
Joshua Kelley221.00
Derius Davis122.00
Isaiah Spiller1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alex Erickson78980
Gerald Everett49310
Quentin Johnston36290
Keelan Doss58250
Stone Smartt22230
Isaiah Spiller22100
Austin Ekeler1240

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jarrett Stidham20/3222410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaleel McLaughlin8445.50
Javonte Williams15412.70
Samaje Perine4102.50
Jarrett Stidham661.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lil'Jordan Humphrey24691
Jerry Jeudy36540
Brandon Johnson46270
Jaleel McLaughlin33180
Javonte Williams33170
Samaje Perine22160
Lucas Krull22140
Adam Trautman1290
Phillip Dorsett0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.8%5.5%7.0%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.4%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.84
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+8.25