Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+8.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.046
- 41.4%Success rate42.3%
- +0.018EPA / dropback-0.005
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.110
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.6%
- -1.84CPOE+3.74
- 38.3%Third-down rate36.8%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 1.75Points / drive1.87
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Easton Stick | 24/38 | 220 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Easton Stick | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Erickson | 7 | 8 | 98 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 4 | 9 | 31 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Keelan Doss | 5 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Stidham | 20/32 | 224 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 15 | 41 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2 | 4 | 69 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Brandon Johnson | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Lucas Krull | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.4%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.84
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+8.25