Closing spread
IND -4
Total
45
Model margin
+1.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play+0.072
- 38.7%Success rate41.4%
- +0.046EPA / dropback+0.193
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.106
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.5%
- 39.1%Third-down rate39.4%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
- 1.01Points / drive1.88
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.134EPA / play allowed-0.036
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 12–6 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. IND are 13-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 54 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:50 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 8:53 | 4 | 17 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 6:58 | 12 | 60 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| IND | Q1 0:16 | 6 | 41 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| KC | Q2 12:42 | 9 | 65 | Touchdown | 10–6 |
| IND | Q2 8:51 | 5 | 66 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| KC | Q2 5:45 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–13 |
| IND | Q2 3:46 | 5 | 37 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| KC | Q2 1:46 | 3 | 5 | Missed field goal | 10–13 |
| IND | Q2 0:28 | 4 | -5 | End of half | 10–13 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 88 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| IND | Q3 8:57 | 7 | 52 | Field goal | 17–16 |
| KC | Q3 4:00 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 17–16 |
| IND | Q3 0:50 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 17–16 |
| IND | Q4 13:53 | 6 | 54 | Touchdown | 17–22 |
| KC | Q4 10:49 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 17–22 |
| IND | Q4 8:14 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 17–22 |
| KC | Q4 6:02 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 17–22 |
| IND | Q4 3:32 | 5 | 27 | Field goal | 17–25 |
| KC | Q4 1:10 | 7 | 31 | End of half | 17–25 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 18/31 | 196 | 1 | 0 |
| Warren Moon | 1/3 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Morris | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lockett | 3 | 4 | 54 | 1 |
| Derrick Alexander | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Lonnie Johnson | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Bam Morris | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Andre Rison | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/33 | 290 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 20 | 109 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 7 | 12 | 93 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 7 | 8 | 90 | 1 |
| Ken Dilger | 1 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Paul Shields | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.70