2022 · Week 3

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

17·20

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Matt Ryan

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

KC -4.5

Total

51

Model margin

-3.2est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapColts
  • +0.179EPA / play-0.154
  • 50.6%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.273EPA / dropback-0.139
  • -0.019EPA / rush-0.181
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +3.02CPOE-1.42
  • 49.4%Third-down rate33.3%
  • 71.2%Red-zone TD rate45.5%
  • 2.71Points / drive1.33
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 12–6 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. IND are 13-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2IND @ KC30–33KC
2025 · W12IND @ KC20–23KC
2019 · W5IND @ KC19–13IND
2018 · playoffsIND @ KC13–31KC
2016 · W8KC @ IND30–14KC
2013 · playoffsKC @ IND44–45IND
2013 · W16IND @ KC23–7IND
2012 · W16IND @ KC20–13IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–IND
INDQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:4734Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 12:2433Punt0–7
INDQ1 11:16831Punt0–7
KCQ1 6:5539Punt0–7
INDQ1 4:424-1Turnover on downs0–7
KCQ1 2:37435Touchdown6–7
INDQ1 0:341046Field goal6–10
KCQ2 9:401128Punt6–10
INDQ2 4:46326Turnover6–10
KCQ2 3:23621Touchdown14–10
INDQ2 1:466-9Punt14–10
KCQ2 0:3436End of half14–10
KCQ3 15:001472Field goal17–10
INDQ3 7:56942Field goal17–13
KCQ3 2:531064Turnover on downs17–13
INDQ4 13:29745Turnover on downs17–13
KCQ4 10:47653Missed field goal17–13
INDQ4 8:381771Touchdown17–20
KCQ4 0:24324Turnover17–20
INDQ4 0:0200End of half17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes20/3526211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Patrick Mahomes4266.50
Jerick McKinnon7202.90
Isiah Pacheco393.00
Travis Kelce111.00
Clyde Edwards-Helaire700.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster58890
Travis Kelce48581
Marquez Valdes-Scantling47480
Clyde Edwards-Helaire55390
Noah Gray12260
Mecole Hardman1120
Jerick McKinnon0100
Justin Watson0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan27/3722220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor21713.40
Nyheim Hines372.30
Matt Ryan341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman89720
Alec Pierce35610
Nyheim Hines56230
Jonathan Taylor35200
Jelani Woods23132
Parris Campbell22100
Mo Alie-Cox1390
Ashton Dulin1170
Kylen Granson2270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.6%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-3.17