Closing spread
KC -4.5
Total
51
Model margin
-3.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.179EPA / play-0.154
- 50.6%Success rate40.3%
- +0.273EPA / dropback-0.139
- -0.019EPA / rush-0.181
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- +3.02CPOE-1.42
- 49.4%Third-down rate33.3%
- 71.2%Red-zone TD rate45.5%
- 2.71Points / drive1.33
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. IND are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 20/35 | 262 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 5 | 8 | 89 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 27/37 | 222 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 21 | 71 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 5 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Jelani Woods | 2 | 3 | 13 | 2 |
| Parris Campbell | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.63
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-3.17