Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play+0.042
- 46.6%Success rate44.5%
- +0.104EPA / dropback+0.093
- +0.052EPA / rush-0.060
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.2%
- +0.62CPOE-1.09
- 43.0%Third-down rate39.4%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 2.74Points / drive2.23
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. KC are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 19/31 | 181 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 16 | 58 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | 48 | 0 |
| Tyler Warren | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 8 | 27 | 1 |
| Alec Pierce | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 29/46 | 352 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 30 | 104 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Brashard Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 8 | 12 | 141 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 4 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Brashard Smith | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.38
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.53