2025 · Week 12

Final / OT

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Daniel Jones

20·23

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.083EPA / play+0.042
  • 46.6%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.104EPA / dropback+0.093
  • +0.052EPA / rush-0.060
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +0.62CPOE-1.09
  • 43.0%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 2.74Points / drive2.23
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 12–6 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. KC are 5-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2IND @ KC30–33KC
2022 · W3KC @ IND17–20IND
2019 · W5IND @ KC19–13IND
2018 · playoffsIND @ KC13–31KC
2016 · W8KC @ IND30–14KC
2013 · playoffsKC @ IND44–45IND
2013 · W16IND @ KC23–7IND
2012 · W16IND @ KC20–13IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–KC
INDQ1 15:00833Punt0–0
KCQ1 9:3323Turnover0–0
INDQ1 8:5423Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 8:111674Field goal7–3
INDQ2 14:51875Touchdown14–3
KCQ2 10:311333Field goal14–6
INDQ2 2:1939Punt14–6
KCQ2 1:411068Field goal14–9
INDQ2 0:0700End of half14–9
KCQ3 15:0037Punt14–9
INDQ3 13:15749Field goal17–9
KCQ3 9:12618Punt17–9
INDQ3 6:151069Field goal20–9
KCQ3 1:26560Turnover20–9
INDQ4 14:483-2Punt20–9
KCQ4 13:461161Touchdown20–17
INDQ4 8:3737Punt20–17
KCQ4 7:273-1Punt20–17
INDQ4 5:4536Punt20–17
KCQ4 4:431590Field goal20–20
INDOT37Punt20–20
KCOT1181Field goal20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones19/3118120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor16583.60
Daniel Jones3165.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ashton Dulin11480
Tyler Warren57450
Michael Pittman58271
Alec Pierce12260
Josh Downs26100
Mo Alie-Cox1190
Jonathan Taylor2380
Andrew Ogletree2281
Ameer Abdullah0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes29/4635201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt301043.51
Patrick Mahomes4307.50
Clyde Edwards-Helaire581.60
Brashard Smith155.00
Travis Kelce111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashee Rice8121410
Xavier Worthy48590
Travis Kelce46430
Brashard Smith34310
Kareem Hunt33260
Noah Gray34250
Marquise Brown11100
Clyde Edwards-Helaire2290
JuJu Smith-Schuster1280
Tyquan Thornton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+2.53