Closing spread
KC -4
Total
54.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play+0.236
- 48.0%Success rate50.0%
- +0.141EPA / dropback+0.349
- -0.097EPA / rush+0.018
- 8.0%Explosive rate12.1%
- +0.63CPOE+4.64
- 50.5%Third-down rate47.8%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate75.5%
- 2.25Points / drive3.03
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. KC are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 19/36 | 203 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 11 | 60 | 1 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 4 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 5 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 27/41 | 278 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Williams | 25 | 129 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 36 | 36.0 | 1 |
| Darrel Williams | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 10 | 108 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 8 | 13 | 72 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 6 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 5 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Gehrig Dieter | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+2.53