2018 · DIV

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

13·31

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 32°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

KC -4

Total

54.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

KC perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.059EPA / play+0.236
  • 48.0%Success rate50.0%
  • +0.141EPA / dropback+0.349
  • -0.097EPA / rush+0.018
  • 8.0%Explosive rate12.1%
  • +0.63CPOE+4.64
  • 50.5%Third-down rate47.8%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate75.5%
  • 2.25Points / drive3.03
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 12–6 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. KC are 5-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2IND @ KC30–33KC
2025 · W12IND @ KC20–23KC
2022 · W3KC @ IND17–20IND
2019 · W5IND @ KC19–13IND
2016 · W8KC @ IND30–14KC
2013 · playoffsKC @ IND44–45IND
2013 · W16IND @ KC23–7IND
2012 · W16IND @ KC20–13IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–KC
INDQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:05575Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 10:0530Punt0–7
KCQ1 9:32965Touchdown0–14
INDQ1 6:2835Punt0–14
KCQ1 4:121448Field goal0–17
INDQ2 12:1339Punt0–17
KCQ2 10:06611Opp touchdown7–17
KCQ2 5:561075Touchdown7–24
INDQ2 1:40770Missed field goal7–24
KCQ3 15:001550Turnover on downs7–24
INDQ3 8:32514Punt7–24
KCQ3 6:38418Punt7–24
INDQ3 3:45522Punt7–24
KCQ3 1:0510Turnover7–24
INDQ3 1:002-9Turnover7–24
KCQ3 0:50636Punt7–24
INDQ4 12:11511Punt7–24
KCQ4 10:423-1Punt7–24
INDQ4 8:351087Touchdown13–24
KCQ4 5:31956Touchdown13–31
INDQ4 2:23950End of half13–31

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck19/3620310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack9465.10
Nyheim Hines3248.00
Andrew Luck2178.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton411601
Dontrelle Inman44550
Eric Ebron59510
Chester Rogers56300
Zach Pascal1370
Ryan Hewitt0100
Mo Alie-Cox0100
Jordan Wilkins0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes27/4127800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Williams251295.21
Tyreek Hill13636.01
Darrel Williams393.01
Patrick Mahomes382.71
Sammy Watkins1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce7101080
Tyreek Hill813720
Sammy Watkins68620
Damien Williams56250
Gehrig Dieter11110
Demetrius Harris0100
Chris Conley0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+2.53