2013 · WC

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

44·45

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

KC -2

Total

48

Model margin

+3.7est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapColts
  • +0.023EPA / play+0.047
  • 42.0%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.073EPA / dropback+0.108
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.071
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -2.44CPOE-1.44
  • 34.4%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 60.9%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.89
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 12–6 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. IND are 13-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2IND @ KC30–33KC
2025 · W12IND @ KC20–23KC
2022 · W3KC @ IND17–20IND
2019 · W5IND @ KC19–13IND
2018 · playoffsIND @ KC13–31KC
2016 · W8KC @ IND30–14KC
2013 · W16IND @ KC23–7IND
2012 · W16IND @ KC20–13IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–IND
KCQ1 15:001482Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 8:11774Touchdown7–7
KCQ1 4:34768Field goal10–7
INDQ1 0:5334Punt10–7
KCQ2 15:00379Touchdown17–7
INDQ2 14:3910Turnover17–7
KCQ2 14:28317Touchdown24–7
INDQ2 13:051161Field goal24–10
KCQ2 9:141677Touchdown31–10
INDQ2 1:51625Turnover31–10
KCQ2 0:2134End of half31–10
INDQ3 15:0010Turnover31–10
KCQ3 14:54318Touchdown38–10
INDQ3 13:39580Touchdown38–17
KCQ3 11:47519Turnover38–17
INDQ3 9:00646Touchdown38–24
KCQ3 7:3235Punt38–24
INDQ3 5:5010Turnover38–24
KCQ3 5:4434Field goal41–24
INDQ3 4:12680Touchdown41–31
KCQ3 2:31735Punt41–31
INDQ4 14:401288Touchdown41–38
KCQ4 10:381058Field goal44–38
INDQ4 5:36480Touchdown44–45
KCQ4 4:21647Turnover on downs44–45
INDQ4 1:5500End of half44–45

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith30/4637840

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knile Davis18673.71
Alex Smith8577.10
Jamaal Charles3186.00
Cyrus Gray252.50
Dexter McCluster133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe8131501
Donnie Avery13791
Dexter McCluster78520
Knile Davis77331
Junior Hemingway23300
A.J. Jenkins11270
Anthony Fasano2360
Cyrus Gray0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck29/4544343

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown11555.01
Andrew Luck7456.40
Trent Richardson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton13182242
LaVon Brazill46540
Donald Brown46471
Coby Fleener57461
Da'Rick Rogers12460
Griff Whalen26260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -23.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.0%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.72