Closing spread
KC -2
Total
48
Model margin
+3.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.023EPA / play+0.047
- 42.0%Success rate44.6%
- +0.073EPA / dropback+0.108
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.071
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- -2.44CPOE-1.44
- 34.4%Third-down rate37.8%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 1.79Points / drive1.89
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. IND are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 30/46 | 378 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knile Davis | 18 | 67 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 8 | 57 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 8 | 13 | 150 | 1 |
| Donnie Avery | 1 | 3 | 79 | 1 |
| Dexter McCluster | 7 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 7 | 7 | 33 | 1 |
| Junior Hemingway | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 29/45 | 443 | 4 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 11 | 55 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Andrew Luck | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 13 | 18 | 224 | 2 |
| LaVon Brazill | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 4 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Coby Fleener | 5 | 7 | 46 | 1 |
| Da'Rick Rogers | 1 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Griff Whalen | 2 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.72