2019 · Week 5

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

19·13

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 59°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

KC -10.5

Total

55.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.009EPA / play+0.135
  • 44.5%Success rate47.0%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback+0.247
  • +0.022EPA / rush-0.094
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -3.86CPOE+1.86
  • 41.9%Third-down rate48.7%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 1.94Points / drive2.59
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 12–6 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. KC are 5-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2IND @ KC30–33KC
2025 · W12IND @ KC20–23KC
2022 · W3KC @ IND17–20IND
2018 · playoffsIND @ KC13–31KC
2016 · W8KC @ IND30–14KC
2013 · playoffsKC @ IND44–45IND
2013 · W16IND @ KC23–7IND
2012 · W16IND @ KC20–13IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–KC
KCQ1 15:001279Field goal0–3
INDQ1 9:021178Touchdown7–3
KCQ1 3:441175Touchdown7–10
INDQ2 14:0878Field goal10–10
KCQ2 11:1230Punt10–10
INDQ2 10:48740Turnover10–10
KCQ2 7:15438Turnover10–10
INDQ2 5:573-2Punt10–10
KCQ2 4:34915Punt10–10
INDQ2 1:441169Field goal13–10
KCQ2 0:1000End of half13–10
INDQ3 15:00822Punt13–10
KCQ3 11:04548Punt13–10
INDQ3 8:321252Punt13–10
KCQ3 2:2230Punt13–10
INDQ3 1:141445Field goal16–10
KCQ4 7:40623Turnover on downs16–10
INDQ4 5:02621Field goal19–10
KCQ4 2:27747Field goal19–13
INDQ4 1:1600End of half19–13

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett18/2915101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack291324.60
Jordan Wilkins7284.00
Zach Pascal11212.00
Jacoby Brissett691.51
Nyheim Hines2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nyheim Hines45460
T.Y. Hilton44370
Jack Doyle33190
Marlon Mack33160
Mo Alie-Cox12100
Eric Ebron1480
Zach Pascal1280
Deon Cain1170
Chester Rogers0200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes22/3932110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Williams9232.60
Patrick Mahomes3175.70
Mecole Hardman1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Byron Pringle681031
Mecole Hardman46790
Travis Kelce410700
Demarcus Robinson36310
LeSean McCoy22230
Damien Williams34150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.13