Closing spread
KC -10.5
Total
55.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.135
- 44.5%Success rate47.0%
- -0.001EPA / dropback+0.247
- +0.022EPA / rush-0.094
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.2%
- -3.86CPOE+1.86
- 41.9%Third-down rate48.7%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.94Points / drive2.59
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. KC are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 18/29 | 151 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 29 | 132 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Deon Cain | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 22/39 | 321 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Williams | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Pringle | 6 | 8 | 103 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 4 | 6 | 79 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.39
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.13