2016 · Week 8

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

30·14

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

KC -3

Total

50.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapColts
  • +0.012EPA / play+0.045
  • 42.7%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.084EPA / dropback+0.127
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.117
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +2.15CPOE+1.05
  • 38.7%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 51.9%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.10
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 12–6 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. IND are 13-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2IND @ KC30–33KC
2025 · W12IND @ KC20–23KC
2022 · W3KC @ IND17–20IND
2019 · W5IND @ KC19–13IND
2018 · playoffsIND @ KC13–31KC
2013 · playoffsKC @ IND44–45IND
2013 · W16IND @ KC23–7IND
2012 · W16IND @ KC20–13IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–IND
KCQ1 15:001160Field goal3–0
INDQ1 10:2047Punt3–0
KCQ1 8:543-3Punt3–0
INDQ1 7:2429Turnover3–0
KCQ1 6:54413Missed field goal3–0
INDQ1 4:51725Punt3–0
KCQ1 1:26680Touchdown10–0
INDQ2 12:58663Touchdown10–7
KCQ2 10:0739Punt10–7
INDQ2 7:45618Punt10–7
KCQ2 4:02627Punt10–7
INDQ2 2:05422Punt10–7
KCQ2 1:2849Punt10–7
INDQ2 0:4210Turnover10–7
KCQ2 0:38336Touchdown17–7
INDQ2 0:1900End of half17–7
INDQ3 15:00417Punt17–7
KCQ3 13:011085Touchdown24–7
INDQ3 7:341265Touchdown24–14
KCQ3 2:05527Punt24–14
INDQ4 14:4236Punt24–14
KCQ4 13:051041Field goal27–14
INDQ4 8:0031Punt27–14
KCQ4 7:09839Field goal30–14
INDQ4 3:351345Turnover on downs30–14
KCQ4 0:0200End of half30–14

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles16/2222320
Alex Smith9/1912710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Charcandrick West14523.70
Spencer Ware7192.70
Alex Smith294.50
Tyreek Hill177.00
De'Anthony Thomas221.00
Nick Foles1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce7101011
Tyreek Hill56981
Chris Conley35590
Jeremy Maclin310431
Spencer Ware22280
Demetrius Harris34130
Charcandrick West2380
De'Anthony Thomas0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck19/3521021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andrew Luck9606.70
Frank Gore9374.10
Robert Turbin294.50
Donte Moncrief1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donte Moncrief49411
Jack Doyle23360
Phillip Dorsett55330
Erik Swoope23300
Frank Gore23251
Robert Turbin33250
T.Y. Hilton16200
Devin Street0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.95