Closing spread
KC -3
Total
50.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play+0.045
- 42.7%Success rate45.9%
- +0.084EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.117
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.4%
- +2.15CPOE+1.05
- 38.7%Third-down rate42.8%
- 51.9%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
- 1.88Points / drive2.10
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. IND are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 16/22 | 223 | 2 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 9/19 | 127 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charcandrick West | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 10 | 101 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 6 | 98 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 3 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 10 | 43 | 1 |
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 19/35 | 210 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 9 | 60 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte Moncrief | 4 | 9 | 41 | 1 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 5 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Erik Swoope | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Devin Street | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.95