Closing spread
KC -6.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+24.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.225EPA / play+0.118
- 42.6%Success rate40.9%
- -0.409EPA / dropback-0.014
- +0.116EPA / rush+0.259
- 13.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- -5.06CPOE-11.92
- 30.0%Third-down rate56.3%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.99Points / drive2.57
- 3.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. KC are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
95.5%
Expected total
39.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+22.63
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+24.77