2026 · Week 2

Final / OT

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Daniel Jones

30·33

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

KC -6

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

KC perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.063EPA / play+0.104
  • 42.5%Success rate46.6%
  • -0.130EPA / dropback+0.122
  • +0.030EPA / rush+0.075
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -4.20CPOE+0.11
  • 40.1%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
  • 1.93Points / drive2.28
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 12–6 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. KC are 5-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12IND @ KC20–23KC
2022 · W3KC @ IND17–20IND
2019 · W5IND @ KC19–13IND
2018 · playoffsIND @ KC13–31KC
2016 · W8KC @ IND30–14KC
2013 · playoffsKC @ IND44–45IND
2013 · W16IND @ KC23–7IND
2012 · W16IND @ KC20–13IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–KC
INDQ1 15:001168Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 8:25536Field goal7–3
INDQ1 6:0924Turnover7–3
KCQ1 5:18216Touchdown7–10
INDQ1 4:341034Field goal10–10
KCQ2 14:48437Missed field goal10–10
INDQ2 12:42612Field goal13–10
KCQ2 9:441380Touchdown13–17
INDQ2 2:25749Touchdown20–17
KCQ2 0:5930Punt20–17
INDQ2 0:3511End of half20–17
KCQ3 15:001480Touchdown20–24
INDQ3 8:01421Punt20–24
KCQ3 5:391391Field goal20–27
INDQ4 14:151359Touchdown27–27
KCQ4 5:37516Punt27–27
INDQ4 3:15731Punt27–27
KCQ4 0:24561End of half27–27
KCOT1060Field goal27–30
INDOT450Field goal30–30
KCOT646Field goal30–33

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones22/3121011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor24923.82
Deion Burks2147.00
Daniel Jones3103.30
Tyler Warren133.00
Seth McGowan200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Downs79720
Laquon Treadwell33610
Jonathan Taylor44400
Tyler Warren67211
Alec Pierce11110
Keenan Allen1550
Andrew Ogletree0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes32/4738230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III241174.90
Patrick Mahomes2178.50
Emmett Johnson2157.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce9111011
Tyquan Thornton44860
Rashee Rice46830
Kenneth Walker III610610
Xavier Worthy57251
Emmett Johnson22200
Jalen Royals2261
Noah Gray0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.9%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.68
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.82