Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play+0.023
- 44.6%Success rate42.0%
- +0.108EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.065
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.3%
- -1.44CPOE-2.44
- 37.8%Third-down rate34.4%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.89Points / drive1.79
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. KC are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 26/37 | 241 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 10 | 79 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Trent Richardson | 16 | 43 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griff Whalen | 7 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Da'Rick Rogers | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 2 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Trent Richardson | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Weslye Saunders | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 16/28 | 153 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 13 | 106 | 8.2 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 5 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.26