2013 · Week 16

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

23·7

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 22°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

KC -7.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.047EPA / play+0.023
  • 44.6%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.108EPA / dropback+0.073
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.065
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -1.44CPOE-2.44
  • 37.8%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.79
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 12–6 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. KC are 5-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2IND @ KC30–33KC
2025 · W12IND @ KC20–23KC
2022 · W3KC @ IND17–20IND
2019 · W5IND @ KC19–13IND
2018 · playoffsIND @ KC13–31KC
2016 · W8KC @ IND30–14KC
2013 · playoffsKC @ IND44–45IND
2012 · W16IND @ KC20–13IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–KC
INDQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
KCQ1 12:53553Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 11:0538Punt0–7
KCQ1 9:5735Punt0–7
INDQ1 7:371244Missed field goal0–7
KCQ1 2:4136Punt0–7
INDQ1 1:39962Field goal3–7
KCQ2 11:40513Turnover3–7
INDQ2 9:39233Touchdown10–7
KCQ2 9:2337Punt10–7
INDQ2 7:361057Field goal13–7
KCQ2 1:54962Missed field goal13–7
INDQ2 0:0200End of half13–7
KCQ3 15:0030Turnover13–7
INDQ3 13:52351Touchdown20–7
KCQ3 12:5534Punt20–7
INDQ3 10:371539Field goal23–7
KCQ3 2:47418Punt23–7
INDQ3 0:4039Punt23–7
KCQ4 13:14765Turnover23–7
INDQ4 9:56735Punt23–7
KCQ4 5:191154Turnover23–7
INDQ4 3:20523End of half23–7

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck26/3724110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown10797.91
Trent Richardson16432.70
Tashard Choice188.00
Andrew Luck650.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Griff Whalen78800
T.Y. Hilton57520
Da'Rick Rogers46420
Donald Brown23311
Trent Richardson35150
Coby Fleener2380
Weslye Saunders1260
Jack Doyle1160
LaVon Brazill0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith16/2815301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles131068.21
Alex Smith6477.80
Knile Davis122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe510460
Jamaal Charles56380
Donnie Avery34320
Anthony Fasano13190
Dexter McCluster13110
Cyrus Gray1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.26