1999 · Week 9
Final
Louisiana Superdome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
33.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.149EPA / play-0.148
- 35.1%Success rate36.9%
- -0.110EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.247
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- 35.3%Third-down rate34.1%
- 37.2%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
- 1.03Points / drive1.12
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.164EPA / play allowed+0.007
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 13 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 12:52 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 12:38 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 11:44 | 11 | 39 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TB | Q1 5:35 | 3 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| NO | Q1 4:01 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–3 |
| TB | Q1 2:09 | 12 | 54 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| NO | Q2 9:49 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| TB | Q2 9:36 | 9 | 42 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| NO | Q2 4:27 | 11 | 47 | Field goal | 17–6 |
| TB | Q2 0:30 | 1 | -2 | End of half | 17–6 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 17–6 |
| TB | Q3 12:34 | 2 | 16 | Turnover | 17–6 |
| NO | Q3 12:01 | 4 | 30 | Turnover | 17–6 |
| TB | Q3 10:30 | 5 | 25 | Touchdown | 24–6 |
| NO | Q3 7:48 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 24–6 |
| TB | Q3 4:36 | 7 | 40 | Punt | 24–6 |
| NO | Q3 0:47 | 12 | 77 | Field goal | 24–9 |
| TB | Q4 10:45 | 15 | 77 | Missed field goal | 24–9 |
| NO | Q4 2:06 | 7 | 59 | Touchdown | 24–16 |
| TB | Q4 0:48 | 5 | 38 | Touchdown | 31–16 |
| NO | Q4 0:15 | 1 | 13 | End of half | 31–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 15/20 | 227 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquez Green | 4 | 6 | 89 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Darnell McDonald | 3 | 3 | 47 | 1 |
| Reidel Anthony | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| John Davis | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Joe Tolliver | 18/37 | 211 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 14 | 41 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Billy Joe Tolliver | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Hastings | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 2 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 2 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 3 | 8 | 23 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Brett Bech | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.39