2022 · Week 13 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.037EPA / play-0.030
- 45.5%Success rate44.0%
- +0.018EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.208
- 8.6%Explosive rate6.5%
- +1.61CPOE+0.30
- 40.9%Third-down rate38.1%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.59Points / drive1.63
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 20/28 | 229 | 1 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 12 | 26 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 4 | 75 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 4 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 3 | 35 | 1 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 5 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Marquez Callaway | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 36/54 | 281 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 8 | 13 | 63 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 6 | 8 | 41 | 1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 6 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 6 | 10 | 28 | 1 |
| Ko Kieft | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.12
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.59