2022 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Andy Dalton

16·17

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

TB -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

+1.6est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.037EPA / play-0.030
  • 45.5%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.018EPA / dropback+0.052
  • -0.109EPA / rush-0.208
  • 8.6%Explosive rate6.5%
  • +1.61CPOE+0.30
  • 40.9%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.63
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB
2021 · W15NO @ TB9–0NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–TB
TBQ1 15:001572Field goal0–3
NOQ1 6:253-3Punt0–3
TBQ1 4:07417Punt0–3
NOQ1 1:53652Punt0–3
TBQ2 14:49716Punt0–3
NOQ2 12:17880Touchdown7–3
TBQ2 7:3357Punt7–3
NOQ2 4:5031Punt7–3
TBQ2 3:46738Turnover7–3
NOQ2 1:27530Field goal10–3
TBQ2 0:2000End of half10–3
NOQ3 15:0032Punt10–3
TBQ3 12:40636Turnover10–3
NOQ3 10:061170Field goal13–3
TBQ3 2:46835Punt13–3
NOQ4 14:531260Field goal16–3
TBQ4 8:0230Punt16–3
NOQ4 6:5439Punt16–3
TBQ4 5:211257Touchdown16–10
NOQ4 3:003-7Punt16–10
TBQ4 2:291273Touchdown16–17
NOQ4 0:0314End of half16–17

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton20/2822910
Taysom Hill1/12100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram7273.90
Alvin Kamara12262.20
Taysom Hill3103.30
Andy Dalton111.00
Rashid Shaheed100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashid Shaheed44750
Chris Olave46650
Taysom Hill23351
Adam Trautman23280
Mark Ingram55220
Jarvis Landry23140
Alvin Kamara23110
Marquez Callaway0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady36/5428121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette10494.90
Rachaad White9283.10
Tom Brady1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.813630
Mike Evans44590
Rachaad White68411
Leonard Fournette67320
Julio Jones36280
Cade Otton610281
Ko Kieft12120
Russell Gage11110
Scott Miller1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.59