2024 · Week 18 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
TB -14.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+14.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play+0.133
- 40.6%Success rate49.4%
- -0.071EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.036EPA / rush+0.012
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.2%
- -3.67CPOE+3.56
- 36.3%Third-down rate50.8%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
- 1.72Points / drive2.71
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 26/42 | 240 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Jordan Mims | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Spencer Rattler | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Johnson | 6 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 2 | 6 | 16 | 1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jordan Mims | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Dallin Holker | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 21/32 | 221 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 19 | 89 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 9 | 68 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jalen McMillan | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 9 | 14 | 89 | 0 |
| Jalen McMillan | 5 | 6 | 74 | 1 |
| Devin Culp | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Payne Durham | 2 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 2 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
83.1%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.70
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+7.91
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+14.32