2024 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Spencer Rattler

19·27

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

TB -14.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+14.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.057EPA / play+0.133
  • 40.6%Success rate49.4%
  • -0.071EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.036EPA / rush+0.012
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.2%
  • -3.67CPOE+3.56
  • 36.3%Third-down rate50.8%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
  • 1.72Points / drive2.71
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB
2021 · W15NO @ TB9–0NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–TB
NOQ1 15:001054Field goal3–0
TBQ1 9:16838Field goal3–3
NOQ1 4:511149Field goal6–3
TBQ2 14:5236Punt6–3
NOQ2 13:501479Touchdown13–3
TBQ2 6:141273Field goal13–6
NOQ2 1:03949Field goal16–6
TBQ2 0:0700End of half16–6
TBQ3 15:001045Touchdown16–13
NOQ3 10:2731Punt16–13
TBQ3 9:2236Turnover16–13
NOQ3 7:2936Field goal19–13
TBQ3 5:5333Punt19–13
NOQ3 4:2038Punt19–13
TBQ3 2:1813127Touchdown19–20
NOQ4 10:09513Punt19–20
TBQ4 7:381389Touchdown19–27
NOQ4 1:51833Turnover on downs19–27
TBQ4 0:3619End of half19–27

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Spencer Rattler26/4224010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire8263.30
Jamaal Williams8151.90
Jordan Mims2126.00
Spencer Rattler11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Juwan Johnson67800
Marquez Valdes-Scantling38330
Foster Moreau44310
Cedrick Wilson Jr.35220
Dante Pettis26161
Clyde Edwards-Helaire11140
Kevin Austin Jr.11130
Jordan Mims33130
Dallin Holker23110
Jamaal Williams1170

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield21/3222121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving19894.71
Baker Mayfield9687.60
Sean Tucker2168.00
Jalen McMillan166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans914890
Jalen McMillan56741
Devin Culp22360
Payne Durham22161
Sterling Shepard12110
Bucky Irving25-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.55.5%2.0%2.7%4.4%3.3%3.7%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.59%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

83.1%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+7.91
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+14.32