2025 · Week 14 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
TB -7.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play+0.006
- 42.4%Success rate43.3%
- -0.032EPA / dropback+0.064
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.087
- 5.5%Explosive rate8.4%
- +1.72CPOE-2.55
- 39.4%Third-down rate41.0%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.53Points / drive1.89
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 13/20 | 144 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Neal | 19 | 70 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Tyler Shough | 7 | 55 | 7.9 | 2 |
| Audric Estimé | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Evan Hull | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devaughn Vele | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Devin Neal | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Evan Hull | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 14/30 | 122 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 2 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Cade Otton | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 2 | 9 | 15 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Kameron Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.82
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.12