2024 · Week 6 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-11.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.133EPA / play-0.057
- 49.4%Success rate40.6%
- +0.211EPA / dropback-0.071
- +0.012EPA / rush-0.036
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.5%
- +3.56CPOE-3.67
- 50.8%Third-down rate36.3%
- 71.2%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 2.71Points / drive1.72
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 24/36 | 325 | 4 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Tucker | 14 | 136 | 9.7 | 1 |
| Bucky Irving | 14 | 81 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 11 | 13 | 125 | 2 |
| Sean Tucker | 3 | 3 | 56 | 1 |
| Ryan Miller | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 2 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 6 | 15 | 1 |
| Jalen McMillan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 22/40 | 243 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 13 | 40 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Spencer Rattler | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jordan Mims | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 54 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Bub Means | 5 | 8 | 45 | 1 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Mason Tipton | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jordan Mims | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
6.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
21.5%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.70
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-7.91
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin-11.23