2024 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

51·27

Saints

New Orleans

QB Spencer Rattler

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

TB -3.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

-11.2est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapSaints
  • +0.133EPA / play-0.057
  • 49.4%Success rate40.6%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback-0.071
  • +0.012EPA / rush-0.036
  • 10.2%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +3.56CPOE-3.67
  • 50.8%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 71.2%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 2.71Points / drive1.72
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB
2021 · W15NO @ TB9–0NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–NO
TBQ1 15:00879Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 10:05332Opp touchdown14–0
NOQ1 8:4237Punt14–0
TBQ1 7:57851Field goal17–0
NOQ1 4:011056Field goal17–3
TBQ2 13:4330Opp touchdown17–10
TBQ2 13:0428Turnover17–10
NOQ2 12:24611Field goal17–13
TBQ2 9:0020Turnover17–19
NOQ2 8:41110Touchdown17–20
TBQ2 8:37686Touchdown24–20
NOQ2 5:39770Touchdown24–27
TBQ2 2:47527Turnover24–27
NOQ2 1:41610Punt24–27
TBQ2 0:46638End of half24–27
NOQ3 15:00735Punt24–27
TBQ3 12:1936Punt24–27
NOQ3 10:483-3Punt24–27
TBQ3 8:38792Touchdown31–27
NOQ3 4:2542Punt31–27
TBQ3 3:0339Punt31–27
NOQ3 0:52311Turnover31–27
TBQ4 14:55663Touchdown37–27
NOQ4 12:343-5Punt37–27
TBQ4 11:361071Touchdown44–27
NOQ4 5:33528Turnover44–27
TBQ4 4:19664Touchdown51–27
NOQ4 1:55939End of half51–27

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield24/3632543

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sean Tucker141369.71
Bucky Irving14815.81
Sterling Shepard4317.80
Baker Mayfield3299.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.11131252
Sean Tucker33561
Ryan Miller11390
Mike Evans26340
Bucky Irving22240
Sterling Shepard34230
Cade Otton26151
Jalen McMillan0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Spencer Rattler22/4024312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara13403.11
Spencer Rattler4276.80
Jamaal Williams273.50
Jordan Mims155.00
Rashid Shaheed122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Foster Moreau22540
Juwan Johnson33480
Bub Means58451
Cedrick Wilson Jr.23280
Alvin Kamara58240
Mason Tipton12150
Jordan Mims24130
Rashid Shaheed17110
Chris Olave1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.1%3.6%3.5%4.8%3.0%2.3%6.4%4.6%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

6.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

21.5%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-7.91
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin-11.23