2023 · Week 17 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.015EPA / play+0.008
- 42.2%Success rate40.5%
- +0.052EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.166
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.94CPOE+0.25
- 39.4%Third-down rate42.2%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.82Points / drive1.86
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 24/32 | 197 | 2 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/2 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 19 | 58 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Johnson | 8 | 12 | 90 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 |
| Chris Olave | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Lynn Bowden | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| A.T. Perry | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 22/33 | 309 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Palmer | 4 | 5 | 84 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 5 | 81 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| David Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.41