2023 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

23·13

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TB -2.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.015EPA / play+0.008
  • 42.2%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.052EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.166
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +1.94CPOE+0.25
  • 39.4%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 57.6%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.86
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB
2021 · W15NO @ TB9–0NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–TB
NOQ1 15:001473Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 7:0438Punt7–0
NOQ1 4:4739Punt7–0
TBQ1 2:411242Turnover7–0
NOQ2 11:56741Punt7–0
TBQ2 7:2432Punt7–0
NOQ2 5:40860Touchdown14–0
TBQ2 1:533-7Punt14–0
NOQ2 1:34619Field goal17–0
TBQ2 0:0900End of half17–0
TBQ3 15:0034Punt17–0
NOQ3 14:01310Punt17–0
TBQ3 11:57861Turnover17–0
NOQ3 7:30631Field goal20–0
TBQ3 4:25520Punt20–0
NOQ3 1:22618Punt20–0
TBQ4 13:00521Turnover20–0
NOQ4 11:2832Punt20–0
TBQ4 10:30891Touchdown20–7
NOQ4 7:50848Field goal23–7
TBQ4 3:48154Turnover23–7
NOQ4 3:3632Punt23–7
TBQ4 1:52354Touchdown23–13
NOQ4 1:3700End of half23–13

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr24/3219720
Taysom Hill1/21100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams19583.10
Alvin Kamara10454.50
Taysom Hill210.50
Derek Carr3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Juwan Johnson812901
Taysom Hill22301
Chris Olave36260
Rashid Shaheed23140
Jamaal Williams44130
Foster Moreau11130
Lynn Bowden1160
A.T. Perry1250
Alvin Kamara2240

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield22/3330922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White11423.80
Chase Edmonds3165.30
Baker Mayfield1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey Palmer45841
Chris Godwin Jr.35811
Mike Evans34700
Chase Edmonds56400
Rachaad White44240
Cade Otton26100
David Moore0100
Deven Thompkins1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.2%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.41