2025 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

23·3

Saints

New Orleans

QB Spencer Rattler

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

TB -4.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapSaints
  • +0.006EPA / play-0.076
  • 43.3%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.064EPA / dropback-0.032
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.155
  • 8.4%Explosive rate5.5%
  • -2.55CPOE+1.72
  • 41.0%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.53
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB
2021 · W15NO @ TB9–0NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–NO
NOQ1 15:00529Turnover0–0
TBQ1 12:1353Punt0–0
NOQ1 8:591031Punt0–0
TBQ1 2:421881Turnover on downs0–0
NOQ2 7:2329Opp touchdown7–0
NOQ2 6:41534Punt7–0
TBQ2 3:5838Punt7–0
NOQ2 1:48110Turnover7–0
TBQ2 1:443-11Turnover7–0
NOQ2 0:47415Field goal7–3
TBQ2 0:0100End of half7–3
TBQ3 15:001073Touchdown14–3
NOQ3 10:08513Punt14–3
TBQ3 8:19728Field goal17–3
NOQ3 4:02618Turnover17–3
TBQ3 1:28616Field goal20–3
NOQ4 14:03720Turnover on downs20–3
TBQ4 11:4438Field goal23–3
NOQ4 9:261243Turnover on downs23–3
TBQ4 4:5236Punt23–3
NOQ4 2:291453End of half23–3

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield15/2415200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sean Tucker12423.51
Rachaad White13352.70
Josh Williams4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tez Johnson56430
Cade Otton45400
Emeka Egbuka39350
Rachaad White22260
Sterling Shepard1280

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Spencer Rattler15/2113601
Tyler Shough17/3012801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara6213.50
Spencer Rattler3124.00
Tyler Shough3124.00
Taysom Hill263.00
Chris Olave1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashid Shaheed912750
Chris Olave812630
Juwan Johnson58530
Alvin Kamara22240
Brandin Cooks34220
Devin Neal33110
Devaughn Vele15100
Taysom Hill1160
Foster Moreau0100
Jack Stoll0100
Mason Tipton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.79
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.81