2025 · Week 8 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
TB -4.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.006EPA / play-0.076
- 43.3%Success rate42.4%
- +0.064EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.155
- 8.4%Explosive rate5.5%
- -2.55CPOE+1.72
- 41.0%Third-down rate39.4%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 1.89Points / drive1.53
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 15/24 | 152 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Tucker | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Rachaad White | 13 | 35 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Josh Williams | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tez Johnson | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 3 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 15/21 | 136 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Shough | 17/30 | 128 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Spencer Rattler | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Shough | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed | 9 | 12 | 75 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 8 | 12 | 63 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 5 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Devin Neal | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mason Tipton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.79
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.81