2023 · Week 4 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
NO -4
Total
41
Model margin
+2.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.015
- 40.5%Success rate42.2%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.113
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.25CPOE+1.94
- 42.2%Third-down rate39.4%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.86Points / drive1.82
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 25/32 | 246 | 3 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 8 | 11 | 114 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 4 | 4 | 45 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 3 | 4 | 13 | 1 |
| Trey Palmer | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Rakim Jarrett | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 23/37 | 127 | 0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 13 | 14 | 33 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Lynn Bowden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.84