2022 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

20·10

Saints

New Orleans

QB Jameis Winston

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

TB -2.5

Total

44

Model margin

+0.4est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapSaints
  • -0.030EPA / play-0.037
  • 44.0%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.052EPA / dropback+0.018
  • -0.208EPA / rush-0.109
  • 6.5%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +0.30CPOE+1.61
  • 38.1%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 51.4%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.59
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2021 · W15NO @ TB9–0NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–NO
NOQ1 15:001063Field goal0–3
TBQ1 9:02949Turnover0–3
NOQ1 4:2162Punt0–3
TBQ1 0:35868Turnover on downs0–3
NOQ2 12:1234Punt0–3
TBQ2 10:3735Punt0–3
NOQ2 8:201037Punt0–3
TBQ2 3:0236Punt0–3
NOQ2 1:43615Punt0–3
TBQ2 0:2200End of half0–3
TBQ3 15:00924Punt0–3
NOQ3 10:4830Punt0–3
TBQ3 9:53828Field goal3–3
NOQ3 6:44964Turnover3–3
TBQ3 1:11614Punt3–3
NOQ4 12:4222Turnover3–3
TBQ4 11:481060Touchdown10–3
NOQ4 7:412-5Turnover10–3
TBQ4 6:4530Field goal13–3
NOQ4 5:50528Opp touchdown20–3
NOQ4 4:11738Touchdown20–10
TBQ4 3:0236Punt20–10
NOQ4 2:37151Turnover20–10
TBQ4 2:2732Punt20–10
NOQ4 1:0749Turnover on downs20–10
TBQ4 0:0300End of half20–10

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady18/3419010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette24652.70
Scott Miller188.00
Rachaad White210.50
Tom Brady3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans34610
Breshad Perriman35451
Scott Miller38340
Russell Gage56280
Cameron Brate1290
Leonard Fournette2490
Cade Otton1240
Rachaad White0200

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston25/4023613

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram10585.80
Dwayne Washington4184.50
Taysom Hill3144.70
Tony Jones284.00
Jameis Winston122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave513800
Michael Thomas69651
Juwan Johnson47400
Jarvis Landry45250
Tony Jones22120
Deonte Harty1190
Mark Ingram2230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.6%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.1%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.44
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.38