2022 · Week 2 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
TB -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play-0.037
- 44.0%Success rate45.5%
- +0.052EPA / dropback+0.018
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.109
- 6.5%Explosive rate8.6%
- +0.30CPOE+1.61
- 38.1%Third-down rate40.9%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.63Points / drive1.59
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18/34 | 190 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 24 | 65 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 3 | 4 | 61 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 3 | 5 | 45 | 1 |
| Scott Miller | 3 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 25/40 | 236 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 5 | 13 | 80 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 6 | 9 | 65 | 1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 4 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.12
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.44
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.38