Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
37
Model margin
+0.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.116
- 40.1%Success rate37.3%
- +0.067EPA / dropback-0.071
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.186
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- 39.0%Third-down rate34.2%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
- 1.52Points / drive1.17
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.042EPA / play allowed-0.102
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. MIA are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 22/42 | 205 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yancey Thigpen | 5 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 1 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 5 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 15/25 | 210 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Collins | 14 | 41 | 2.9 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 11 | 9 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Martin | 5 | 6 | 95 | 1 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 2 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| O.J. McDuffie | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| J.J. Johnson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.82