1999 · Week 9

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

0·17

Dolphins

Miami

QB Damon Huard

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

MIA -3

Total

37

Model margin

+0.8est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapDolphins
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.116
  • 40.1%Success rate37.3%
  • +0.067EPA / dropback-0.071
  • -0.083EPA / rush-0.186
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 39.0%Third-down rate34.2%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
  • 1.52Points / drive1.17
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.042EPA / play allowed-0.102

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. MIA are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4TEN @ MIA31–12TEN
2023 · W14TEN @ MIA28–27TEN
2021 · W17MIA @ TEN3–34TEN
2018 · W1TEN @ MIA20–27MIA
2017 · W5TEN @ MIA10–16MIA
2016 · W5TEN @ MIA30–17TEN
2015 · W6MIA @ TEN38–10MIA
2012 · W10TEN @ MIA37–3TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00515Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:2336Punt0–0
MIAQ1 10:4332Punt0–0
TENQ1 9:511072Missed field goal0–0
MIAQ1 5:011277Touchdown0–7
TENQ2 13:43535Punt0–7
MIAQ2 10:5032Punt0–7
TENQ2 9:4348Turnover on downs0–7
MIAQ2 8:04251Touchdown0–14
TENQ2 7:27936Turnover0–14
MIAQ2 2:284-6Punt0–14
TENQ2 1:21421Turnover0–14
MIAQ2 0:1413Missed field goal0–14
TENQ2 0:0300End of half0–14
TENQ3 15:00519Punt0–14
MIAQ3 11:181150Punt0–14
TENQ3 4:32731Turnover0–14
MIAQ3 0:503-5Field goal0–17
TENQ4 14:5538Punt0–17
MIAQ4 12:50628Punt0–17
TENQ4 9:1030Punt0–17
TENQ4 8:363-11Punt0–17
MIAQ4 7:22621Punt0–17
TENQ4 3:501069Turnover on downs0–17
MIAQ4 0:2000End of half0–17

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair22/4220503

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George14654.60
Steve McNair7334.70
Rodney Thomas252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Yancey Thigpen510600
Chris Sanders13400
Kevin Dyson37320
Jackie Harris55320
Eddie George23200
Frank Wycheck36150
Rodney Thomas2240
Isaac Byrd0200

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Damon Huard15/2521020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cecil Collins14412.90
J.J. Johnson1190.80
Damon Huard221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Martin56951
Oronde Gadsden24470
O.J. McDuffie46410
Stanley Pritchett22151
J.J. Johnson1240
Hunter Goodwin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.43
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.82