Closing spread
MIA -14
Total
45
Model margin
+2.7est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.095
- 40.9%Success rate47.3%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.009
- 9.0%Explosive rate11.5%
- +0.48CPOE+4.40
- 34.1%Third-down rate42.5%
- 49.4%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.57Points / drive2.34
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. MIA are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 23/38 | 327 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 17 | 34 | 2.0 | 2 |
| Tyjae Spears | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Will Levis | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 12 | 124 | 1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 6 | 8 | 89 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 23/33 | 240 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 21 | 96 | 4.6 | 2 |
| De'Von Achane | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 6 | 8 | 79 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 5 | 9 | 24 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.97
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.68