2023 · Week 14

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Will Levis

28·27

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

MIA -14

Total

45

Model margin

+2.7est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapDolphins
  • -0.023EPA / play+0.095
  • 40.9%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.009
  • 9.0%Explosive rate11.5%
  • +0.48CPOE+4.40
  • 34.1%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 49.4%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.57Points / drive2.34
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. MIA are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4TEN @ MIA31–12TEN
2021 · W17MIA @ TEN3–34TEN
2018 · W1TEN @ MIA20–27MIA
2017 · W5TEN @ MIA10–16MIA
2016 · W5TEN @ MIA30–17TEN
2015 · W6MIA @ TEN38–10MIA
2012 · W10TEN @ MIA37–3TEN
2010 · W10TEN @ MIA17–29MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–MIA
TENQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:23965Turnover0–0
TENQ1 9:1432Opp touchdown0–7
TENQ1 8:25510Punt0–7
MIAQ1 5:021056Punt0–7
TENQ2 14:061473Touchdown7–7
MIAQ2 6:53846Missed field goal7–7
TENQ2 1:51413Punt7–7
MIAQ2 0:5638Punt7–7
TENQ2 0:28574Field goal10–7
MIAQ3 15:001160Field goal10–10
TENQ3 9:35616Punt10–10
MIAQ3 6:4336Punt10–10
TENQ3 5:531270Field goal13–10
MIAQ3 0:09654Field goal13–13
TENQ4 12:3735Punt13–13
MIAQ4 10:48832Punt13–13
MIAQ4 6:0727Touchdown13–20
TENQ4 5:3410Turnover13–20
MIAQ4 5:2838Touchdown13–27
TENQ4 4:34980Touchdown21–27
MIAQ4 2:4038Punt21–27
TENQ4 2:15461Touchdown28–27
MIAQ4 1:49616Turnover on downs28–27
TENQ4 0:2000End of half28–27

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Will Levis23/3832711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry17342.02
Tyjae Spears7294.10
Will Levis4153.80
Treylon Burks155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins7121241
Tyjae Spears68890
Chig Okonkwo56460
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine24280
Chris Moore11220
Derrick Henry12170
Treylon Burks1310

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa23/3324000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert21964.62
De'Von Achane7476.70
Tua Tagovailoa3155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle68790
Tyreek Hill45610
Cedrick Wilson Jr.24300
De'Von Achane59240
Durham Smythe23160
Braxton Berrios22130
Raheem Mostert1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.67%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.97
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.68