Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play-0.004
- 45.5%Success rate42.2%
- +0.103EPA / dropback+0.062
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.092
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.4%
- +1.12CPOE+4.52
- 45.6%Third-down rate37.0%
- 75.2%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.72Points / drive1.80
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. MIA are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 20/29 | 163 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 27 | 121 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 7 | 60 | 8.6 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 7 | 54 | 7.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 5 | 8 | 66 | 1 |
| Rishard Matthews | 4 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 5 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 2 | 4 | 13 | 1 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 12/18 | 191 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 3 | 70 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 2 | 67 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Dominique Jones | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.02