2016 · Week 5

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

30·17

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapDolphins
  • +0.037EPA / play-0.004
  • 45.5%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.103EPA / dropback+0.062
  • -0.049EPA / rush-0.092
  • 10.3%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +1.12CPOE+4.52
  • 45.6%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 75.2%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.80
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. MIA are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4TEN @ MIA31–12TEN
2023 · W14TEN @ MIA28–27TEN
2021 · W17MIA @ TEN3–34TEN
2018 · W1TEN @ MIA20–27MIA
2017 · W5TEN @ MIA10–16MIA
2015 · W6MIA @ TEN38–10MIA
2012 · W10TEN @ MIA37–3TEN
2010 · W10TEN @ MIA17–29MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–MIA
TENQ1 15:00519Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:00611Punt0–0
TENQ1 8:13725Punt0–0
MIAQ1 4:4836Punt0–0
TENQ1 3:12561Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 0:2339Punt7–0
TENQ2 14:44414Opp touchdown7–7
TENQ2 12:231276Touchdown14–7
MIAQ2 5:30679Touchdown14–14
TENQ2 2:00675Touchdown21–14
MIAQ2 0:473-4Punt21–14
TENQ2 0:1944Turnover on downs21–14
MIAQ3 15:00621Turnover21–14
TENQ3 11:5832Field goal24–14
MIAQ3 10:33973Field goal24–17
TENQ3 5:10952Punt24–17
MIAQ3 0:123-5Punt24–17
TENQ4 13:17953Touchdown30–17
MIAQ4 8:233-10Punt30–17
TENQ4 6:0869Punt30–17
MIAQ4 2:55220Turnover30–17
TENQ4 2:14211End of half30–17

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota20/2916330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray271214.50
Marcus Mariota7608.61
Derrick Henry7547.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker58661
Rishard Matthews44321
Tajae Sharpe24170
DeMarco Murray56160
Andre Johnson24131
Anthony Fasano11100
Kendall Wright1190

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill12/1819102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi13423.21
Kenyan Drake242.00
Damien Williams133.00
Jarvis Landry122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker23700
Damien Williams22670
Jarvis Landry33280
Kenyan Drake23160
Dion Sims1360
Dominique Jones2240
Kenny Stills0100
Jay Ajayi0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+2.02