Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Total
37
Model margin
-0.5est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.104EPA / play-0.040
- 40.4%Success rate44.3%
- -0.056EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.175EPA / rush-0.246
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.3%
- +0.11CPOE+3.08
- 38.0%Third-down rate35.4%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.35Points / drive1.92
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. MIA are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 9/17 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Levis | 3/4 | 25 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 22 | 88 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 15 | 39 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Will Levis | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 14/22 | 96 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Jaylen Wright | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 10 | 15 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Tanner Conner | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.41
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-5.60
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.49