2024 · Week 4

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Will Levis

31·12

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tyler Huntley

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

Total

37

Model margin

-0.5est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapDolphins
  • -0.104EPA / play-0.040
  • 40.4%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.056EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.175EPA / rush-0.246
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +0.11CPOE+3.08
  • 38.0%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.92
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. MIA are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W14TEN @ MIA28–27TEN
2021 · W17MIA @ TEN3–34TEN
2018 · W1TEN @ MIA20–27MIA
2017 · W5TEN @ MIA10–16MIA
2016 · W5TEN @ MIA30–17TEN
2015 · W6MIA @ TEN38–10MIA
2012 · W10TEN @ MIA37–3TEN
2010 · W10TEN @ MIA17–29MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–MIA
TENQ1 15:00824Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 10:05431Turnover0–0
TENQ1 8:3339Punt0–0
MIAQ1 6:113-4Punt0–0
TENQ1 4:14821Field goal3–0
MIAQ2 14:1659Turnover on downs3–0
TENQ2 12:21829Field goal6–0
MIAQ2 8:20929Field goal6–3
TENQ2 4:13424Punt6–3
MIAQ2 2:0836Punt6–3
TENQ2 1:40419Punt6–3
MIAQ2 0:5746Punt6–3
TENQ2 0:16127Field goal9–3
MIAQ3 15:0031Punt9–3
TENQ3 13:573-3Punt9–3
MIAQ3 11:4045Field goal9–6
TENQ3 9:02655Touchdown16–6
MIAQ3 6:003-7Punt16–6
TENQ3 4:20515Field goal19–6
MIAQ3 0:3648Turnover on downs19–6
TENQ4 14:08712Field goal22–6
MIAQ4 10:451485Touchdown22–12
TENQ4 3:3632Punt24–12
MIAQ4 2:3310Safety24–12
TENQ4 2:27410Touchdown31–12
MIAQ4 0:24215End of half31–12

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph9/178500
Will Levis3/42501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard22884.01
Tyjae Spears15392.61
Calvin Ridley11010.00
Will Levis252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins24310
Tyler Boyd22310
Tony Pollard22200
Treylon Burks11130
Calvin Ridley1350
Chig Okonkwo1350
Josh Whyle1150
Tyjae Spears2200

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley14/229600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Huntley8405.01
Jaylen Wright9323.60
Tyreek Hill3196.30
De'Von Achane10151.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle46360
Tyreek Hill47230
Tanner Conner22150
De'Von Achane33140
Malik Washington1180
Jonnu Smith0100
Jaylen Wright0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.7%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.60
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.49