Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
41
Model margin
+1.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play+0.025
- 41.8%Success rate44.7%
- +0.028EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.180EPA / rush-0.054
- 6.7%Explosive rate7.8%
- -0.02CPOE+2.33
- 41.1%Third-down rate43.8%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.58Points / drive2.15
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. TEN are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 18/38 | 205 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 7 | 49 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 3 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 13 | 46 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 13/18 | 120 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 26 | 132 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 2 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 3 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Chester Rogers | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 3 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+1.95