Closing spread
TEN -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play-0.111
- 42.6%Success rate40.1%
- +0.023EPA / dropback-0.100
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.128
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.7%
- +1.50CPOE-0.24
- 40.0%Third-down rate30.3%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate65.0%
- 1.83Points / drive1.45
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. MIA are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 11/22 | 117 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 9/16 | 103 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 16 | 75 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 6 | 13 | 62 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 5 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 20/28 | 230 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 9 | 61 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Stills | 4 | 5 | 106 | 2 |
| Jakeem Grant | 5 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.1%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.23
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.49