2018 · Week 1

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

20·27

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

TEN -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

-1.5est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapDolphins
  • -0.029EPA / play-0.111
  • 42.6%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.023EPA / dropback-0.100
  • -0.094EPA / rush-0.128
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +1.50CPOE-0.24
  • 40.0%Third-down rate30.3%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate65.0%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.45
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. MIA are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4TEN @ MIA31–12TEN
2023 · W14TEN @ MIA28–27TEN
2021 · W17MIA @ TEN3–34TEN
2017 · W5TEN @ MIA10–16MIA
2016 · W5TEN @ MIA30–17TEN
2015 · W6MIA @ TEN38–10MIA
2012 · W10TEN @ MIA37–3TEN
2010 · W10TEN @ MIA17–29MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–MIA
TENQ1 15:00837Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 10:18421Punt3–0
TENQ1 7:381178Turnover on downs3–0
MIAQ1 1:421388Touchdown3–7
TENQ2 11:21515Punt3–7
MIAQ2 8:111280Turnover on downs3–7
TENQ2 1:54725Punt3–7
MIAQ2 0:1800End of half3–7
MIAQ3 15:0037Punt3–7
TENQ3 13:3236Punt3–7
MIAQ3 12:0538Punt3–7
TENQ3 9:5824Turnover3–7
MIAQ3 9:04626Turnover3–7
TENQ3 6:4710Turnover3–7
MIAQ3 6:42519Field goal3–10
TENQ3 4:05970Touchdown10–16
MIAQ4 14:1700Touchdown10–17
TENQ4 14:04627Punt10–17
MIAQ4 11:39489Touchdown16–24
TENQ4 10:2200Touchdown17–24
MIAQ4 10:1146Turnover17–24
TENQ4 8:47616Turnover17–24
MIAQ4 6:0430Field goal17–27
TENQ4 3:49518Turnover on downs17–27
MIAQ4 3:0730Punt17–27
TENQ4 1:07540Field goal20–27
MIAQ4 0:1100End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert11/2211701
Marcus Mariota9/1610302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dion Lewis16754.71
Derrick Henry10262.60
Marcus Mariota3155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis613620
Delanie Walker47520
Luke Stocker22370
Dion Lewis58350
Tajae Sharpe13170
Jonnu Smith13120
Derrick Henry1150
Taywan Taylor0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill20/2823022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore9616.80
Kenyan Drake14483.40
Albert Wilson273.50
Ryan Tannehill441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Stills451062
Jakeem Grant57380
Albert Wilson34310
Danny Amendola46260
Kenyan Drake34180
Mike Gesicki12110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.1%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.49