Closing spread
PK
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play-0.125
- 42.6%Success rate39.2%
- -0.057EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.198
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.0%
- +0.43CPOE-0.06
- 36.0%Third-down rate31.0%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.73Points / drive1.31
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. MIA are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 21/32 | 141 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 5 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Phillip Supernaw | 2 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 4 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Jalston Fowler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 12/26 | 92 | 1 | 1 |
| MarQueis Gray | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 25 | 77 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 10 | 44 | 1 |
| Julius Thomas | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+3.29
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.81