2017 · Week 5

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Cassel

10·16

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Cutler

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PK

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapDolphins
  • -0.069EPA / play-0.125
  • 42.6%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.057EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.198
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +0.43CPOE-0.06
  • 36.0%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.31
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. MIA are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4TEN @ MIA31–12TEN
2023 · W14TEN @ MIA28–27TEN
2021 · W17MIA @ TEN3–34TEN
2018 · W1TEN @ MIA20–27MIA
2016 · W5TEN @ MIA30–17TEN
2015 · W6MIA @ TEN38–10MIA
2012 · W10TEN @ MIA37–3TEN
2010 · W10TEN @ MIA17–29MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–MIA
TENQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:1238Punt0–0
TENQ1 11:05624Punt0–0
MIAQ1 6:1634Punt0–0
TENQ1 4:3423Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 4:02619Field goal0–3
TENQ1 0:53411Opp touchdown0–10
TENQ1 0:06520Punt0–10
MIAQ2 12:42215Turnover0–10
TENQ2 11:523-3Field goal3–10
MIAQ2 9:37512Punt3–10
TENQ2 7:1135Punt3–10
MIAQ2 5:3410Turnover3–10
TENQ2 5:203-5Punt3–10
MIAQ2 2:4335Punt3–10
TENQ2 1:40520Punt3–10
MIAQ2 0:2300End of half3–10
MIAQ3 15:003-3Punt3–10
TENQ3 11:59978Touchdown10–10
MIAQ3 7:17422Punt10–10
TENQ3 5:423-8Punt10–10
MIAQ3 3:23612Punt10–10
TENQ3 1:3632Punt10–10
MIAQ3 0:291058Touchdown10–16
TENQ4 10:3331Punt10–16
MIAQ4 9:1568Punt10–16
TENQ4 5:15516Punt10–16
MIAQ4 2:51619Punt10–16
TENQ4 0:19219End of half10–16

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel21/3214110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray14584.10
Derrick Henry492.30
Taywan Taylor155.00
Rishard Matthews1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker46340
Rishard Matthews36340
Delanie Walker35250
Jonnu Smith55210
Phillip Supernaw22161
DeMarco Murray45110
Jalston Fowler0100
Taywan Taylor0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler12/269211
MarQueis Gray0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi25773.10
Damien Williams3155.00
Jay Cutler284.00
Kenyan Drake100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry510441
Julius Thomas14150
Kenny Stills12130
Damien Williams12130
DeVante Parker1160
Jay Ajayi2320
Anthony Fasano0100
MarQueis Gray0100
Jakeem Grant12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line 03.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.29
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.81