Closing spread
TEN -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.1est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.103
- 40.5%Success rate41.1%
- +0.008EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.200
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.8%
- +1.20CPOE+0.30
- 31.0%Third-down rate32.1%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
- 1.42Points / drive1.32
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. TEN are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 22/29 | 266 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 19 | 113 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Jonas Gray | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rishard Matthews | 6 | 6 | 85 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 4 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Jordan Cameron | 3 | 8 | 30 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jonas Gray | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 21/33 | 219 | 1 | 2 |
| Zach Mettenberger | 5/8 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexter McCluster | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Antonio Andrews | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Zach Mettenberger | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 8 | 10 | 97 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 3 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 3 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 3 | 4 | 19 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Antonio Andrews | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.84
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.09