2015 · Week 6

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

38·10

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

TEN -2.5

Total

44

Model margin

+0.1est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapTitans
  • -0.032EPA / play-0.103
  • 40.5%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.008EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.200
  • 9.5%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +1.20CPOE+0.30
  • 31.0%Third-down rate32.1%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
  • 1.42Points / drive1.32
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. TEN are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4TEN @ MIA31–12TEN
2023 · W14TEN @ MIA28–27TEN
2021 · W17MIA @ TEN3–34TEN
2018 · W1TEN @ MIA20–27MIA
2017 · W5TEN @ MIA10–16MIA
2016 · W5TEN @ MIA30–17TEN
2012 · W10TEN @ MIA37–3TEN
2010 · W10TEN @ MIA17–29MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–TEN
MIAQ1 15:00875Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 10:39961Field goal7–3
MIAQ1 5:281083Field goal10–3
TENQ1 0:06822Turnover10–3
MIAQ2 11:30322Turnover10–3
TENQ2 10:0346Turnover10–3
MIAQ2 8:46844Touchdown17–3
TENQ2 5:07937Punt17–3
MIAQ2 1:401057Turnover17–3
TENQ2 0:142-7End of half17–3
TENQ3 15:00617Punt17–3
MIAQ3 11:37514Punt17–3
TENQ3 8:49624Opp touchdown24–3
TENQ3 5:403-2Punt24–3
MIAQ3 3:4530Punt24–3
TENQ3 2:15552Touchdown24–10
MIAQ4 15:003-10Punt24–10
TENQ4 13:1510Turnover24–10
MIAQ4 13:0810107Touchdown31–10
TENQ4 7:38631Turnover on downs31–10
MIAQ4 5:59842Touchdown38–10
TENQ4 1:54958End of half38–10

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill22/2926622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller191135.91
Jonas Gray7243.40
Jarvis Landry22412.01
Ryan Tannehill2147.00
Damien Williams252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rishard Matthews66850
Kenny Stills22460
Jarvis Landry34420
Dion Sims44331
Jordan Cameron38301
Greg Jennings11130
Jonas Gray11120
Lamar Miller2350

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota21/3321912
Zach Mettenberger5/86300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dexter McCluster5234.60
Antonio Andrews9232.60
Bishop Sankey3134.30
Zach Mettenberger144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker810970
Dorial Green-Beckham36570
Justin Hunter34540
Kendall Wright45340
Dexter McCluster34191
Harry Douglas14110
Bishop Sankey1370
Antonio Andrews1120
Anthony Fasano2310

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.84
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.09