Closing spread
MIA -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play-0.049
- 38.0%Success rate42.9%
- -0.054EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.107
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.9%
- -2.87CPOE-2.89
- 38.2%Third-down rate37.7%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate58.9%
- 1.29Points / drive1.37
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. MIA are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 9/21 | 122 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 23 | 126 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Jake Locker | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Darius Reynaud | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jamie Harper | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 2 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 1 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Kendall Wright | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Darius Reynaud | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 23/39 | 217 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 8 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 5 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.37