2012 · Week 10

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Jake Locker

37·3

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

MIA -6.5

Total

44

Model margin

+2.4est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapDolphins
  • -0.093EPA / play-0.049
  • 38.0%Success rate42.9%
  • -0.054EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.107
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -2.87CPOE-2.89
  • 38.2%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 55.5%Red-zone TD rate58.9%
  • 1.29Points / drive1.37
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. MIA are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4TEN @ MIA31–12TEN
2023 · W14TEN @ MIA28–27TEN
2021 · W17MIA @ TEN3–34TEN
2018 · W1TEN @ MIA20–27MIA
2017 · W5TEN @ MIA10–16MIA
2016 · W5TEN @ MIA30–17TEN
2015 · W6MIA @ TEN38–10MIA
2010 · W10TEN @ MIA17–29MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00520Punt0–0
TENQ1 11:3965Punt0–0
MIAQ1 9:27312Turnover0–0
TENQ1 8:23428Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 6:4955Punt7–0
TENQ1 5:02765Touchdown14–0
MIAQ1 1:23527Opp touchdown21–0
MIAQ2 14:051073Field goal21–3
TENQ2 9:03715Punt21–3
MIAQ2 5:3738Punt21–3
TENQ2 4:0133Punt21–3
MIAQ2 2:5739Turnover21–3
TENQ2 1:5134Field goal24–3
MIAQ2 0:2700End of half24–3
TENQ3 15:001290Touchdown31–3
MIAQ3 6:54729Punt31–3
TENQ3 3:32849Field goal34–3
MIAQ4 14:091061Turnover34–3
TENQ4 11:1332Field goal37–3
MIAQ4 9:4535Punt37–3
TENQ4 8:53424Punt37–3
MIAQ4 5:2557Punt37–3
TENQ4 2:29111End of half37–3

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Locker9/2112220
Matt Hasselbeck0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson231265.51
Jake Locker4369.00
Darius Reynaud4153.80
Jamie Harper200.00
Matt Hasselbeck3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt26360
Damian Williams22310
Jared Cook13261
Kendall Wright1391
Chris Johnson1280
Craig Stevens1270
Nate Washington1250
Darius Reynaud0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill23/3921703

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush4215.30
Daniel Thomas5214.20
Lamar Miller3124.00
Matt Moore111.00
Ryan Tannehill1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline810790
Davone Bess46530
Daniel Thomas56340
Charles Clay14150
Lamar Miller23130
Jabar Gaffney15110
Reggie Bush1280
Anthony Fasano1340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

4.72%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.37