1999 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

16·15

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

Three Rivers Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 58°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

PIT -14.5

Total

34.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.110EPA / play-0.063
  • 35.3%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.079EPA / dropback-0.073
  • -0.177EPA / rush-0.048
  • 6.6%Explosive rate6.4%
  • 29.7%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 74.3%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
  • 1.12Points / drive1.27
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%
  • +0.100EPA / play allowed-0.045

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. PIT are 30-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
CLEQ1 15:00580Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 12:25947Field goal7–3
CLEQ1 7:343-1Punt7–3
PITQ1 6:21522Punt7–3
CLEQ1 3:2932Punt7–3
PITQ1 1:4910Turnover7–3
CLEQ1 1:40610Turnover7–3
PITQ2 14:48934Punt7–3
CLEQ2 10:3639Punt7–3
PITQ2 8:383-7Punt7–3
CLEQ2 7:10748Punt7–3
PITQ2 3:44942Punt7–3
CLEQ2 1:1736Punt7–3
PITQ2 0:0610End of half7–3
PITQ3 15:00951Field goal7–6
CLEQ3 9:572-6Turnover7–6
PITQ3 8:5938Touchdown7–12
CLEQ3 8:186-15Punt7–12
PITQ3 6:0737Punt7–12
CLEQ3 4:37620Punt7–12
PITQ3 1:001061Field goal7–15
CLEQ4 10:10629Punt7–15
PITQ4 7:1136Turnover7–15
CLEQ4 6:26315Touchdown13–15
PITQ4 5:12727Punt13–15
CLEQ4 1:51438Field goal16–15

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch18/2819921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar18563.10
Tim Couch2157.50
Terry Kirby133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Johnson57731
Darrin Chiaverini35440
Leslie Shepherd25310
Mark Campbell11120
Terry Kirby23100
Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar1170
Irv Smith0200

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kordell Stewart15/3213702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis26993.80
Kordell Stewart6528.70
Richard Huntley4123.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward49390
Troy Edwards26290
Courtney Hawkins35290
Mark Bruener24200
Jerome Bettis1170
Richard Huntley1170
Will Blackwell1340
Bobby Shaw0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.57.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.95