Closing spread
PIT -14.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.110EPA / play-0.063
- 35.3%Success rate41.6%
- -0.079EPA / dropback-0.073
- -0.177EPA / rush-0.048
- 6.6%Explosive rate6.4%
- 29.7%Third-down rate37.4%
- 74.3%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 1.12Points / drive1.27
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.100EPA / play allowed-0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 18/28 | 199 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 18 | 56 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 5 | 7 | 73 | 1 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 15/32 | 137 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 26 | 99 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 6 | 52 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 4 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 2 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Courtney Hawkins | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Will Blackwell | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.95