Closing spread
SEA -5.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.035EPA / play-0.070
- 40.6%Success rate39.0%
- +0.016EPA / dropback+0.010
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.193
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.7%
- 36.1%Third-down rate33.0%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
- 1.38Points / drive1.40
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.063EPA / play allowed-0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 46.3 points. SEA are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 13:16 | 12 | 44 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 8:27 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 4:24 | 13 | 86 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 12:52 | 8 | 34 | Punt | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q2 8:02 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 6:28 | 10 | 34 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q2 1:46 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 1:08 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q2 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q3 14:51 | 5 | 18 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| SEA | Q3 11:43 | 3 | -4 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| DEN | Q3 9:59 | 9 | 45 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| SEA | Q3 5:29 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 10–10 |
| DEN | Q3 3:41 | 6 | 38 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| SEA | Q3 0:50 | 7 | 42 | Field goal | 17–13 |
| DEN | Q4 14:20 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 17–13 |
| SEA | Q4 10:01 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| DEN | Q4 7:19 | 10 | 35 | Turnover on downs | 17–20 |
| SEA | Q4 2:40 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–20 |
| DEN | Q4 0:21 | 1 | 42 | End of half | 17–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Miller | 20/30 | 239 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 26 | 65 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Chris Miller | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| John Avery | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 6 | 9 | 125 | 1 |
| Rod Smith | 7 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Olandis Gary | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Billy Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 16/31 | 235 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 17 | 29 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Dawkins | 5 | 8 | 91 | 1 |
| Joey Galloway | 4 | 6 | 88 | 0 |
| Derrick Mayes | 4 | 8 | 39 | 1 |
| Christian Fauria | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Mike Pritchard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.92
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.49