2013 · SB

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

43·8

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 49°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

DEN -1.5

Total

47

Model margin

+3.1est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBroncos
  • +0.059EPA / play+0.205
  • 44.6%Success rate50.2%
  • +0.190EPA / dropback+0.346
  • -0.101EPA / rush-0.029
  • 10.9%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +5.19CPOE+6.21
  • 38.4%Third-down rate47.1%
  • 61.9%Red-zone TD rate81.1%
  • 2.17Points / drive2.85
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. DEN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6SEA @ DEN14–17DEN
2024 · W1DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2022 · W1DEN @ SEA16–17SEA
2018 · W1SEA @ DEN24–27DEN
2014 · W3DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2010 · W2SEA @ DEN14–31DEN
2006 · W13SEA @ DEN23–20SEA
2002 · W11DEN @ SEA31–9DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–DEN
DENQ1 15:0010Safety2–0
SEAQ1 14:48860Field goal5–0
DENQ1 10:2138Punt5–0
SEAQ1 8:311368Field goal8–0
DENQ1 2:1633Turnover8–0
SEAQ1 0:59833Touchdown15–0
DENQ2 12:001659Opp touchdown22–0
DENQ2 3:21953Turnover on downs22–0
SEAQ2 1:0125End of half28–0
SEAQ3 15:0000Touchdown29–0
DENQ3 14:481033Punt29–0
SEAQ3 10:38521Punt29–0
DENQ3 7:05334Turnover29–0
SEAQ3 5:55658Touchdown36–0
DENQ3 2:58870Touchdown36–8
SEAQ4 15:00658Touchdown43–8
DENQ4 11:45825Turnover on downs43–8
SEAQ4 9:48833Turnover on downs43–8
DENQ4 5:194-2Turnover43–8
SEAQ4 3:4445Turnover on downs43–8
DENQ4 1:59323End of half43–8

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson18/2520620
Tarvaris Jackson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Percy Harvin24522.50
Marshawn Lynch15392.61
Russell Wilson3268.70
Robert Turbin9252.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin55661
Jermaine Kearse45651
Ricardo Lockette12190
Golden Tate34170
Luke Willson24170
Zach Miller12100
Percy Harvin1250
Robert Turbin0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning34/4928012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno5173.40
C.J. Anderson294.50
Montee Ball610.20
Peyton Manning100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas13181181
Wes Welker810840
Julius Thomas46270
Knowshon Moreno34200
C.J. Anderson11140
Jacob Tamme2290
Eric Decker1560
Montee Ball2320

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.07