Closing spread
DEN -1.5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play+0.205
- 44.6%Success rate50.2%
- +0.190EPA / dropback+0.346
- -0.101EPA / rush-0.029
- 10.9%Explosive rate9.8%
- +5.19CPOE+6.21
- 38.4%Third-down rate47.1%
- 61.9%Red-zone TD rate81.1%
- 2.17Points / drive2.85
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. DEN are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 18/25 | 206 | 2 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 45 | 22.5 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 15 | 39 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 5 | 5 | 66 | 1 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 4 | 5 | 65 | 1 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 34/49 | 280 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 6 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 13 | 18 | 118 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 8 | 10 | 84 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.07