2026 · Week 6

Final / OT

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Drew Lock

14·17

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors

Closing spread

SEA -2.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

-1.8est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBroncos
  • -0.042EPA / play-0.040
  • 42.4%Success rate37.9%
  • +0.103EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.225EPA / rush-0.093
  • 8.3%Explosive rate6.4%
  • +1.94CPOE-2.61
  • 38.2%Third-down rate31.4%
  • 58.1%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.75
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. DEN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2022 · W1DEN @ SEA16–17SEA
2018 · W1SEA @ DEN24–27DEN
2014 · W3DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2013 · playoffsSEA @ DEN43–8SEA
2010 · W2SEA @ DEN14–31DEN
2006 · W13SEA @ DEN23–20SEA
2002 · W11DEN @ SEA31–9DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–DEN
SEAQ1 15:00820Punt0–0
DENQ1 9:5932Punt0–0
SEAQ1 8:29513Field goal3–0
DENQ1 6:311779Touchdown3–7
SEAQ2 12:52611Punt3–7
DENQ2 9:471044Touchdown3–14
SEAQ2 5:15627Turnover3–14
DENQ2 2:2434Punt3–14
SEAQ2 1:43520Punt3–14
DENQ2 0:4721End of half3–14
DENQ3 15:0049Punt3–14
SEAQ3 12:45855Missed field goal3–14
DENQ3 8:3034Punt3–14
SEAQ3 7:46713Punt3–14
DENQ3 3:2133Punt3–14
SEAQ3 1:40830Punt3–14
DENQ4 12:52523Punt3–14
SEAQ4 9:181266Touchdown11–14
DENQ4 5:413-10Punt11–14
SEAQ4 3:24645Turnover11–14
DENQ4 1:2532Punt11–14
SEAQ4 0:57538Field goal14–14
DENQ4 0:0300End of half14–14
SEAOT615Turnover14–14
DENOT38Field goal14–17

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold27/5127802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emanuel Wilson14523.70
Velus Jones Jr.4205.00
George Holani5204.01
Sam Darnold2199.50
Rashid Shaheed122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba12161340
Rashid Shaheed58660
Cooper Kupp510500
AJ Barner34160
Tory Horton15130
Eric Saubert0100
Emanuel Wilson0100
Velus Jones Jr.11-10

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix17/2710700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins17412.41
RJ Harvey6254.21
Tyler Badie166.00
Bo Nix420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
RJ Harvey34310
Jaylen Waddle47240
Courtland Sutton23190
Evan Engram22130
Marvin Mims Jr.24130
J.K. Dobbins3350
Troy Franklin1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.3%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.57
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.79