Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-10.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Seahawksedge mapBroncos
- +0.029EPA / play-0.378
- 38.8%Success rate36.0%
- +0.196EPA / dropback-0.442
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.228
- 10.2%Explosive rate2.0%
- +2.36CPOE-7.78
- 18.2%Third-down rate16.7%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 1.29Points / drive0.83
- 0.0%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. DEN are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-12.69
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-10.47