2018 · Week 1

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

24·27

Broncos

Denver

QB Case Keenum

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DEN -3

Total

42.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Broncos

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBroncos
  • +0.093EPA / play-0.020
  • 44.2%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.208EPA / dropback-0.009
  • -0.027EPA / rush-0.040
  • 11.2%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +7.30CPOE-0.98
  • 38.7%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 2.23Points / drive1.60
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. DEN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6SEA @ DEN14–17DEN
2024 · W1DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2022 · W1DEN @ SEA16–17SEA
2014 · W3DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2013 · playoffsSEA @ DEN43–8SEA
2010 · W2SEA @ DEN14–31DEN
2006 · W13SEA @ DEN23–20SEA
2002 · W11DEN @ SEA31–9DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–DEN
DENQ1 15:00724Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:1134Punt0–0
DENQ1 10:29314Turnover6–0
SEAQ1 9:10115Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 9:04775Touchdown7–7
SEAQ1 6:1037Punt7–7
DENQ1 4:30741Punt7–7
SEAQ1 0:45688Field goal10–7
DENQ2 13:59675Touchdown10–14
SEAQ2 10:29416Punt10–14
DENQ2 7:58530Field goal10–17
SEAQ2 5:25626Missed field goal10–17
DENQ2 1:51338Turnover10–17
SEAQ2 1:0931End of half10–17
SEAQ3 15:0039Punt10–17
DENQ3 13:30724Punt10–17
SEAQ3 8:55214Turnover10–17
DENQ3 8:1510Turnover10–17
SEAQ3 7:58541Touchdown17–17
DENQ3 6:0267Punt17–17
SEAQ3 3:4133Turnover17–17
DENQ3 2:5530Field goal17–20
SEAQ3 2:01770Touchdown24–20
DENQ4 14:46880Touchdown24–27
SEAQ4 11:1145Punt24–27
DENQ4 8:31520Punt24–27
SEAQ4 5:043-4Punt24–27
DENQ4 3:28642Punt24–27
SEAQ4 1:01411Turnover24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson19/3329832

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson7517.30
Rashaad Penny781.10
Russell Wilson252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Will Dissly351051
Tyler Lockett34591
Brandon Marshall36461
Rashaad Penny45350
Chris Carson35280
Nick Vannett12110
Jaron Brown1370
Doug Baldwin0100
David Moore0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum25/3932933

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay15714.70
Royce Freeman15714.70
Devontae Booker242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders10111351
Demaryius Thomas610631
Courtland Sutton25450
Phillip Lindsay23311
Jake Butt24290
Jeff Heuerman11150
Devontae Booker22110
Matt LaCosse0100
Tim Patrick0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.7%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.50