Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play-0.020
- 44.2%Success rate43.4%
- +0.208EPA / dropback-0.009
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.040
- 11.2%Explosive rate9.9%
- +7.30CPOE-0.98
- 38.7%Third-down rate33.1%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 2.23Points / drive1.60
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. DEN are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 19/33 | 298 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 7 | 51 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dissly | 3 | 5 | 105 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 4 | 59 | 1 |
| Brandon Marshall | 3 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Rashaad Penny | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 25/39 | 329 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 10 | 11 | 135 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 6 | 10 | 63 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 2 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Jake Butt | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Matt LaCosse | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.50