Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+3.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.117EPA / play-0.017
- 38.3%Success rate39.3%
- -0.072EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.194EPA / rush-0.205
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.8%
- -1.80CPOE-2.61
- 37.0%Third-down rate31.6%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
- 1.36Points / drive1.70
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. DEN are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 20/35 | 233 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 1 | 2 | 52 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 5 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 5 | 10 | 48 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 4 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Quinton Ganther | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 25/35 | 307 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 24 | 51 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 11 | 19 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Kyle Orton | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 8 | 9 | 97 | 1 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 4 | 4 | 67 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 5 | 5 | 65 | 1 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dan Gronkowski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.35