2010 · Week 2

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

14·31

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 91°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

+3.4est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBroncos
  • -0.117EPA / play-0.017
  • 38.3%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.072EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.194EPA / rush-0.205
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -1.80CPOE-2.61
  • 37.0%Third-down rate31.6%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
  • 1.36Points / drive1.70
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. DEN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6SEA @ DEN14–17DEN
2024 · W1DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2022 · W1DEN @ SEA16–17SEA
2018 · W1SEA @ DEN24–27DEN
2014 · W3DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2013 · playoffsSEA @ DEN43–8SEA
2006 · W13SEA @ DEN23–20SEA
2002 · W11DEN @ SEA31–9DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–DEN
SEAQ1 15:001579Turnover0–0
DENQ1 8:43730Punt0–0
DENQ1 5:04318Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 3:48618Punt0–7
DENQ1 0:111081Touchdown0–14
SEAQ2 10:30952Turnover0–14
DENQ2 6:181576Field goal0–17
SEAQ2 0:1100End of half0–17
DENQ3 15:00617Punt0–17
SEAQ3 11:51522Touchdown7–17
DENQ3 9:471166Touchdown7–24
SEAQ3 3:31560Turnover on downs7–24
DENQ3 2:071475Touchdown7–31
SEAQ4 9:11990Touchdown14–31
DENQ4 5:5936Punt14–31
SEAQ4 3:4233Punt14–31
DENQ4 3:1735Punt14–31
SEAQ4 2:45516Turnover14–31
DENQ4 1:3400End of half14–31

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck20/3523313

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett8445.50
Matt Hasselbeck3217.01
Leon Washington4174.30
Julius Jones4123.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate12520
Deon Butler58500
John Carlson510480
Deion Branch47310
Ben Obomanu22301
Justin Forsett1180
Mike Williams1370
Quinton Ganther0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton25/3530720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno24512.11
Correll Buckhalter11191.71
Kyle Orton3-5-1.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas89971
Knowshon Moreno44670
Eddie Royal55651
Brandon Lloyd34530
Jabar Gaffney25150
Daniel Graham2360
Correll Buckhalter0300
Dan Gronkowski0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.35