2006 · Week 13

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

23·20

Broncos

Denver

QB Jay Cutler

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 16°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

DEN -4.5

Total

41

Model margin

+2.9est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBroncos
  • -0.075EPA / play-0.045
  • 40.2%Success rate40.7%
  • -0.031EPA / dropback-0.060
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.028
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -1.93CPOE-2.37
  • 37.5%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 55.0%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.52
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. DEN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6SEA @ DEN14–17DEN
2024 · W1DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2022 · W1DEN @ SEA16–17SEA
2018 · W1SEA @ DEN24–27DEN
2014 · W3DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2013 · playoffsSEA @ DEN43–8SEA
2010 · W2SEA @ DEN14–31DEN
2002 · W11DEN @ SEA31–9DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–DEN
SEAQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:5739Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:2236Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:0432Punt0–0
SEAQ1 9:3937Punt0–0
DENQ1 7:29531Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 3:58620Punt0–3
DENQ2 14:4835Punt0–3
SEAQ2 12:18425Missed field goal0–3
DENQ2 9:36858Touchdown0–10
SEAQ2 6:1434Punt6–10
DENQ2 5:1110Opp touchdown7–10
DENQ2 5:00540Turnover7–10
SEAQ2 2:3030Missed field goal7–10
DENQ2 1:47624Field goal7–13
DENQ3 15:00834Turnover7–13
SEAQ3 10:46312Punt7–13
DENQ3 8:40620Punt7–13
SEAQ3 5:52533Turnover7–13
DENQ3 3:1233Punt7–13
SEAQ3 2:16420Punt7–13
DENQ3 0:2931Punt7–13
SEAQ4 13:3230Punt7–13
DENQ4 11:3734Punt7–13
SEAQ4 9:42228Touchdown14–13
DENQ4 8:1300Field goal14–13
SEAQ4 8:0469Field goal17–13
DENQ4 4:0810Turnover17–13
SEAQ4 3:5539Field goal20–13
DENQ4 2:58171Touchdown20–20
SEAQ4 2:37859Field goal23–20
DENQ4 0:0500End of half23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck16/2816801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander26903.51
Maurice Morris372.30
Deion Branch133.00

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler10/2114322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tatum Bell231335.80
Cecil Sapp22412.00
Mike Bell4123.00
Jay Cutler4102.50
Jason Elam122.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.06
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+2.85