2006 · Week 13

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

23·20

Broncos

Denver

QB Jay Cutler

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 16°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

DEN -4.5

Total

41

Model margin

+2.9est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBroncos
  • -0.075EPA / play-0.045
  • 40.2%Success rate40.7%
  • -0.031EPA / dropback-0.060
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.028
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -1.93CPOE-2.37
  • 37.5%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 55.0%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.52
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. DEN are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2022 · W1DEN @ SEA16–17SEA
2018 · W1SEA @ DEN24–27DEN
2014 · W3DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2013 · playoffsSEA @ DEN43–8SEA
2010 · W2SEA @ DEN14–31DEN
2002 · W11DEN @ SEA31–9DEN
2001 · W13SEA @ DEN7–20DEN

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck16/2816801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander26903.51
Maurice Morris372.30
Deion Branch133.00

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler10/2114322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tatum Bell231335.80
Cecil Sapp22412.00
Mike Bell4123.00
Jay Cutler4102.50
Jason Elam122.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.06
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+2.85