2022 · Week 1

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

16·17

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf

Closing spread

DEN -6

Total

44

Model margin

+2.5est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.077EPA / play+0.013
  • 39.4%Success rate44.8%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.071
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -1.65CPOE+5.46
  • 29.1%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 61.5%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
  • 1.34Points / drive2.05
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. SEA are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6SEA @ DEN14–17DEN
2024 · W1DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2018 · W1SEA @ DEN24–27DEN
2014 · W3DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2013 · playoffsSEA @ DEN43–8SEA
2010 · W2SEA @ DEN14–31DEN
2006 · W13SEA @ DEN23–20SEA
2002 · W11DEN @ SEA31–9DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00675Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 11:26882Field goal3–7
SEAQ1 6:55836Turnover on downs3–7
DENQ1 2:55743Punt3–7
SEAQ2 13:141038Field goal3–10
DENQ2 7:20375Touchdown10–10
SEAQ2 5:34770Touchdown10–17
DENQ2 2:24857Field goal13–17
DENQ3 15:001157Turnover13–17
SEAQ3 7:33817Turnover13–17
DENQ3 5:31610Turnover13–17
SEAQ3 3:051026Punt13–17
DENQ4 12:501477Field goal16–17
SEAQ4 6:133-6Punt16–17
DENQ4 4:02932Missed field goal16–17
SEAQ4 0:1500End of half16–17

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson29/4234010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon12584.80
Javonte Williams7436.10
Russell Wilson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy471021
Courtland Sutton47720
Javonte Williams1112650
Albert Okwuegbunam56330
Melvin Gordon22140
Mike Boone1120
Eric Tomlinson0100
Eric Saubert0100
KJ Hamler0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith23/2819520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashaad Penny12605.00
Geno Smith6142.30
Travis Homer122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Will Dissly33431
Colby Parkinson22431
DK Metcalf77360
Tyler Lockett34280
Marquise Goodwin22220
Noah Fant34160
Rashaad Penny2370
Dee Eskridge1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -64.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.67%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.51