Closing spread
DEN -6
Total
44
Model margin
+2.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play+0.013
- 39.4%Success rate44.8%
- -0.050EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.2%
- -1.65CPOE+5.46
- 29.1%Third-down rate37.4%
- 61.5%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
- 1.34Points / drive2.05
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. SEA are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 29/42 | 340 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 4 | 7 | 102 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 11 | 12 | 65 | 0 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 23/28 | 195 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaad Penny | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dissly | 3 | 3 | 43 | 1 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 2 | 43 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 7 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.51