Closing spread
SEA -6.5
Total
42
Model margin
-0.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.013
- 42.8%Success rate44.4%
- +0.062EPA / dropback+0.044
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.126
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- +0.58CPOE+4.61
- 40.4%Third-down rate37.5%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 2.16Points / drive1.82
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. SEA are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 26/42 | 138 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Audric Estimé | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reynolds | 5 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 8 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 12 | 38 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 18/25 | 171 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 20 | 103 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 8 | 12 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 6 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 3 | 29 | 1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dareke Young | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.79
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.08