2024 · Week 1

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

20·26

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 65°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

SEA -6.5

Total

42

Model margin

-0.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Nothing filed.

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.011EPA / play-0.013
  • 42.8%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.062EPA / dropback+0.044
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.126
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +0.58CPOE+4.61
  • 40.4%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 2.16Points / drive1.82
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. SEA are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6SEA @ DEN14–17DEN
2022 · W1DEN @ SEA16–17SEA
2018 · W1SEA @ DEN24–27DEN
2014 · W3DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2013 · playoffsSEA @ DEN43–8SEA
2010 · W2SEA @ DEN14–31DEN
2006 · W13SEA @ DEN23–20SEA
2002 · W11DEN @ SEA31–9DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–SEA
SEAQ1 15:002-7Turnover0–0
DENQ1 14:1238Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 12:36310Punt3–0
DENQ1 10:5435Punt3–0
SEAQ1 9:0449Punt3–0
DENQ1 7:0237Punt3–0
SEAQ1 5:38726Field goal3–3
DENQ1 2:411247Turnover5–3
SEAQ2 11:2810Safety5–3
DENQ2 11:2234Punt5–3
DENQ2 10:1533Field goal8–3
SEAQ2 8:45664Touchdown8–9
DENQ2 5:5534Punt10–9
SEAQ2 4:361-1Safety10–9
DENQ2 4:24617Punt10–9
SEAQ2 1:4131Punt10–9
DENQ2 0:31426Field goal13–9
SEAQ2 0:0200End of half13–9
DENQ3 15:003-3Punt13–9
SEAQ3 13:31666Touchdown13–16
DENQ3 10:44517Turnover13–16
SEAQ3 8:031033Field goal13–19
DENQ3 4:0935Punt13–19
SEAQ3 2:37680Touchdown13–26
DENQ4 14:5439Punt13–26
SEAQ4 12:59618Punt13–26
DENQ4 8:37828Turnover13–26
SEAQ4 5:3041Punt13–26
DENQ4 4:28754Touchdown20–26
SEAQ4 2:0948End of half20–26

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix26/4213802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bo Nix5357.01
Jaleel McLaughlin10272.70
Javonte Williams8232.90
Audric Estimé2147.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Reynolds58450
Devaughn Vele88390
Courtland Sutton412380
Greg Dulcich23120
Jaleel McLaughlin5510
Lil'Jordan Humphrey0100
Adam Trautman0100
Javonte Williams1200
Marvin Mims Jr.0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith18/2517111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III201035.21
Geno Smith4307.51
Zach Charbonnet8121.50
Laviska Shenault Jr.111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett67770
DK Metcalf34290
Zach Charbonnet23291
Jaxon Smith-Njigba22190
Noah Fant24110
Kenneth Walker III2360
Laviska Shenault Jr.1100
Dareke Young0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

4.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.8%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.08