Closing spread
SEA -4
Total
48
Model margin
+3.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play+0.091
- 46.3%Success rate44.0%
- +0.188EPA / dropback+0.141
- -0.075EPA / rush+0.030
- 10.7%Explosive rate11.7%
- +3.06CPOE+4.40
- 44.4%Third-down rate43.4%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
- 2.29Points / drive2.06
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. SEA are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 31/49 | 303 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montee Ball | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 11 | 15 | 149 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 6 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 9 | 31 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 2 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Julius Thomas | 3 | 4 | 17 | 1 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 24/34 | 258 | 2 | 1 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1/1 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 26 | 88 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 7 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 3 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 1 | 1 | 39 | 1 |
| Bryan Walters | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.82