2014 · Week 3

Final / OT

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

20·26

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 70°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

SEA -4

Total

48

Model margin

+3.8est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.083EPA / play+0.091
  • 46.3%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.188EPA / dropback+0.141
  • -0.075EPA / rush+0.030
  • 10.7%Explosive rate11.7%
  • +3.06CPOE+4.40
  • 44.4%Third-down rate43.4%
  • 70.9%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
  • 2.29Points / drive2.06
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. SEA are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6SEA @ DEN14–17DEN
2024 · W1DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2022 · W1DEN @ SEA16–17SEA
2018 · W1SEA @ DEN24–27DEN
2013 · playoffsSEA @ DEN43–8SEA
2010 · W2SEA @ DEN14–31DEN
2006 · W13SEA @ DEN23–20SEA
2002 · W11DEN @ SEA31–9DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:3319Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 13:23421Field goal0–3
DENQ1 10:331470Field goal3–3
SEAQ1 3:2735Punt3–3
DENQ1 1:1241Punt3–3
SEAQ2 14:13729Punt3–3
DENQ2 9:31823Punt3–3
SEAQ2 5:27678Touchdown3–10
DENQ2 3:0530Punt3–10
SEAQ2 2:381068Touchdown3–17
DENQ2 0:1200End of half3–17
DENQ3 15:0038Punt3–17
SEAQ3 13:45521Punt3–17
DENQ3 10:04535Punt3–17
SEAQ3 8:0038Punt3–17
DENQ3 6:3130Punt3–17
SEAQ3 6:04733Missed field goal3–17
DENQ3 1:38519Punt3–17
SEAQ4 14:533-8Safety5–17
DENQ4 13:07412Punt5–17
SEAQ4 11:1210Turnover5–17
DENQ4 11:02519Touchdown12–17
SEAQ4 9:20837Punt12–17
DENQ4 6:07957Turnover12–17
SEAQ4 2:12413Field goal12–20
DENQ4 0:59580Touchdown20–20
SEAQ4 0:1800End of half20–20
SEAOT1375Touchdown20–26

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning31/4930321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Montee Ball14382.70
Ronnie Hillman221.00
Virgil Green100.00
Peyton Manning1-1-1.00
C.J. Anderson2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders11151490
Wes Welker69600
Demaryius Thomas49310
Jacob Tamme23221
Julius Thomas34171
Virgil Green11100
Ronnie Hillman1370
Montee Ball2360
C.J. Anderson1110

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson24/3425821
Jermaine Kearse1/11700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch26883.41
Russell Wilson9404.40
Robert Turbin210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin45560
Percy Harvin79420
Marshawn Lynch35401
Ricardo Lockette11391
Bryan Walters25220
Jermaine Kearse22220
Russell Wilson11170
Zach Miller22120
Paul Richardson1170
Robert Turbin1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.82