Closing spread
DET -5.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.176
- 38.8%Success rate35.9%
- +0.024EPA / dropback-0.148
- -0.222EPA / rush-0.226
- 8.4%Explosive rate5.9%
- 35.5%Third-down rate33.3%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.19Points / drive0.87
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.055EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 10–8–1 since 1999
DET have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 24/39 | 375 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Hill | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germane Crowell | 5 | 10 | 142 | 1 |
| Johnnie Morton | 4 | 6 | 110 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 7 | 10 | 88 | 1 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Iheanyi Uwaezuoke | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Greg Hill | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Brian Stablein | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Brown | 16/30 | 209 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 23 | 133 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Dave Brown | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Sanders | 5 | 10 | 86 | 0 |
| David Boston | 4 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Rob Moore | 3 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.51