1999 · Week 10

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Gus Frerotte

19·23

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Dave Brown

Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

DET -5.5

Total

35.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.057EPA / play-0.176
  • 38.8%Success rate35.9%
  • +0.024EPA / dropback-0.148
  • -0.222EPA / rush-0.226
  • 8.4%Explosive rate5.9%
  • 35.5%Third-down rate33.3%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 1.19Points / drive0.87
  • 2.0%Turnover rate3.8%
  • -0.055EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 10–9–1 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. ARI are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DET @ ARI45–21DET
2024 · W3DET @ ARI20–13DET
2021 · W15ARI @ DET12–30DET
2020 · W3DET @ ARI26–23DET
2019 · W1DET @ ARI27–27Tie
2018 · W14DET @ ARI17–3DET
2017 · W1ARI @ DET23–35DET
2015 · W5ARI @ DET42–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–ARI
ARIQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:46566Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 10:44660Field goal7–3
DETQ1 7:5936Punt7–3
ARIQ1 6:17514Missed field goal7–3
DETQ1 4:15630Turnover7–3
ARIQ1 2:04994Touchdown7–10
DETQ2 13:18719Punt7–10
ARIQ2 9:53859Field goal7–13
DETQ2 5:1135Punt7–13
ARIQ2 3:313-6Punt7–13
DETQ2 1:52551Missed field goal7–13
ARIQ2 0:52421Field goal7–16
DETQ3 15:007-4Punt7–22
ARIQ3 11:21158Touchdown7–23
DETQ3 11:11177Touchdown13–23
ARIQ3 10:5137Punt13–23
DETQ3 8:39741Punt13–23
ARIQ3 5:431020Missed field goal13–23
DETQ3 1:16621Punt13–23
ARIQ4 13:03824Punt13–23
DETQ4 7:4633Punt13–23
ARIQ4 6:3936Opp touchdown19–23
DETQ4 5:2600Opp touchdown19–23
ARIQ4 5:263-13Punt19–23
DETQ4 4:091058Turnover on downs19–23
ARIQ4 1:0800End of half19–23

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gus Frerotte24/3937520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Greg Hill10252.50
Sedrick Irvin4174.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Germane Crowell5101421
Johnnie Morton461100
David Sloan710881
Sedrick Irvin34180
Iheanyi Uwaezuoke1150
Greg Hill1330
Brian Stablein0200

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dave Brown16/3020900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman231335.81
Dave Brown6193.20
Adrian Murrell242.00
Mario Bates133.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Sanders510860
David Boston44530
Michael Pittman23440
Rob Moore37240
Johnny McWilliams1230
Adrian Murrell11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.5%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.13
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.51