2015 · Week 5

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

42·17

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ARI -4.5

Total

46

Model margin

+1.0est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapLions
  • +0.133EPA / play-0.019
  • 47.7%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.260EPA / dropback+0.045
  • -0.059EPA / rush-0.160
  • 10.8%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +4.51CPOE-0.09
  • 47.4%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
  • 2.34Points / drive1.90
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 10–9–1 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. DET are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DET @ ARI45–21DET
2024 · W3DET @ ARI20–13DET
2021 · W15ARI @ DET12–30DET
2020 · W3DET @ ARI26–23DET
2019 · W1DET @ ARI27–27Tie
2018 · W14DET @ ARI17–3DET
2017 · W1ARI @ DET23–35DET
2014 · W11DET @ ARI6–14ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–DET
DETQ1 15:0043Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 14:0230Punt0–0
DETQ1 12:37853Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 8:013-1Punt0–0
DETQ1 6:09877Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 2:21556Touchdown7–7
DETQ2 14:55822Turnover13–7
ARIQ2 11:0114Touchdown14–7
DETQ2 10:561133Punt14–7
ARIQ2 5:36599Touchdown21–7
DETQ2 3:1136Turnover21–7
ARIQ2 2:55322Touchdown28–7
DETQ2 2:08524Punt28–7
ARIQ2 0:3900End of half28–7
ARIQ3 15:00314Punt28–7
DETQ3 13:02617Turnover28–7
ARIQ3 10:14647Touchdown35–7
DETQ3 6:271056Punt35–7
ARIQ3 0:5639Punt35–7
DETQ4 14:04960Field goal35–10
ARIQ4 11:51380Touchdown42–10
DETQ4 10:20411Turnover42–10
ARIQ4 9:26415Punt42–10
DETQ4 7:4637Punt42–10
ARIQ4 6:5134Punt42–10
DETQ4 5:191666Touchdown42–17
ARIQ4 1:2900End of half42–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer11/1416130
Drew Stanton1/41000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson111039.40
Andre Ellington36321.01
Stepfan Taylor4194.80
David Johnson362.02
Carson Palmer1-1-1.00
Drew Stanton3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Brown44731
Larry Fitzgerald57581
Darren Fells22251
Michael Floyd13150
Jermaine Gresham0100
Stepfan Taylor0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dan Orlovsky21/3819111
Matthew Stafford20/3218813

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Zenner10303.00
Ameer Abdullah6162.70
Golden Tate188.00
Matthew Stafford122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate818740
Calvin Johnson57670
Corey Fuller24560
Lance Moore68551
Theo Riddick1013531
Brandon Pettigrew35290
Timothy Wright35120
T.J. Jones13110
Ameer Abdullah1290
Zach Zenner1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.7%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.97