Closing spread
ARI -4.5
Total
46
Model margin
+1.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.133EPA / play-0.019
- 47.7%Success rate44.9%
- +0.260EPA / dropback+0.045
- -0.059EPA / rush-0.160
- 10.8%Explosive rate7.6%
- +4.51CPOE-0.09
- 47.4%Third-down rate38.4%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.34Points / drive1.90
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 10–8–1 since 1999
DET have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. DET are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 11/14 | 161 | 3 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 1/4 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 11 | 103 | 9.4 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 3 | 63 | 21.0 | 1 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 2 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 4 | 4 | 73 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 7 | 58 | 1 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Orlovsky | 21/38 | 191 | 1 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 20/32 | 188 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Zenner | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 8 | 18 | 74 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 5 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Corey Fuller | 2 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 6 | 8 | 55 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 10 | 13 | 53 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.97