Closing spread
ARI -13
Total
48
Model margin
-0.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.079EPA / play-0.061
- 46.8%Success rate42.1%
- +0.154EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.123
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.0%
- +4.19CPOE-0.05
- 45.2%Third-down rate34.7%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
- 2.37Points / drive1.73
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 10–8–1 since 1999
DET have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. DET are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 23/41 | 257 | 1 | 1 |
| Colt McCoy | 6/9 | 56 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Edmonds | 6 | 53 | 8.8 | 0 |
| James Conner | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Ward | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 9 | 12 | 94 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 11 | 74 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 4 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| James Conner | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Antoine Wesley | 3 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jonathan Ward | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 21/26 | 216 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Reynolds | 26 | 112 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jermar Jefferson | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Godwin Igwebuike | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 8 | 11 | 90 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 6 | 6 | 68 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Shane Zylstra | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Godwin Igwebuike | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.14
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.35