2021 · Week 15

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

12·30

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ARI -13

Total

48

Model margin

-0.3est.

DET perspective

Push chance

1.4%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapLions
  • +0.079EPA / play-0.061
  • 46.8%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.154EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.037EPA / rush-0.123
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +4.19CPOE-0.05
  • 45.2%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
  • 2.37Points / drive1.73
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 10–9–1 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. DET are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DET @ ARI45–21DET
2024 · W3DET @ ARI20–13DET
2020 · W3DET @ ARI26–23DET
2019 · W1DET @ ARI27–27Tie
2018 · W14DET @ ARI17–3DET
2017 · W1ARI @ DET23–35DET
2015 · W5ARI @ DET42–17ARI
2014 · W11DET @ ARI6–14ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–DET
DETQ1 15:001468Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 6:1035Punt0–3
DETQ1 3:42893Touchdown0–10
ARIQ2 14:533-2Punt0–10
DETQ2 13:1638Punt0–10
ARIQ2 11:10724Punt0–10
DETQ2 7:4032Punt0–10
ARIQ2 6:13958Turnover on downs0–10
DETQ2 1:59967Touchdown0–17
ARIQ2 0:1900End of half0–17
ARIQ3 15:00864Field goal3–17
DETQ3 11:22528Turnover3–17
ARIQ3 8:4922Turnover3–23
DETQ3 8:1516Touchdown3–24
ARIQ3 8:101076Field goal6–24
DETQ3 3:541141Field goal6–27
ARIQ4 13:15820Turnover on downs6–27
DETQ4 11:37519Punt6–27
ARIQ4 7:481287Touchdown12–27
DETQ4 4:4066Field goal12–30
ARIQ4 2:461165End of half12–30

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray23/4125711
Colt McCoy6/95600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Edmonds6538.80
James Conner8394.90
Jonathan Ward166.00
Colt McCoy133.00
Kyler Murray430.80
Rondale Moore111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk912941
Zach Ertz611740
A.J. Green48640
James Conner22310
Antoine Wesley38190
Andy Isabella11130
Jonathan Ward1290
Rondale Moore3390
Chase Edmonds0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff21/2621630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Craig Reynolds261124.30
Jermar Jefferson591.80
Amon-Ra St. Brown155.00
Godwin Igwebuike200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown811901
Josh Reynolds66681
Kalif Raymond23200
Shane Zylstra11160
Godwin Igwebuike22110
Craig Reynolds1150
Brock Wright0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -132.7%4.5%3.0%7.4%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.1%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.35