Closing spread
DET -3
Total
51.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play+0.067
- 49.6%Success rate47.3%
- +0.267EPA / dropback+0.126
- +0.021EPA / rush-0.023
- 11.5%Explosive rate10.0%
- +5.81CPOE+2.11
- 48.1%Third-down rate43.0%
- 74.9%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 3.02Points / drive2.31
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 10–8–1 since 1999
DET have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 18/23 | 199 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 23 | 105 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 16 | 83 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 8 | 75 | 1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 21/34 | 207 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 0 |
| James Conner | 9 | 17 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Trey Benson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson | 8 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 5 | 11 | 64 | 1 |
| Greg Dortch | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| James Conner | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.33