2024 · Week 3

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

20·13

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

51.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.156EPA / play+0.067
  • 49.6%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.267EPA / dropback+0.126
  • +0.021EPA / rush-0.023
  • 11.5%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +5.81CPOE+2.11
  • 48.1%Third-down rate43.0%
  • 74.9%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 3.02Points / drive2.31
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 10–9–1 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. ARI are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DET @ ARI45–21DET
2021 · W15ARI @ DET12–30DET
2020 · W3DET @ ARI26–23DET
2019 · W1DET @ ARI27–27Tie
2018 · W14DET @ ARI17–3DET
2017 · W1ARI @ DET23–35DET
2015 · W5ARI @ DET42–17ARI
2014 · W11DET @ ARI6–14ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–ARI
DETQ1 15:00970Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 10:161075Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 5:081375Touchdown13–7
ARIQ2 12:2739Punt13–7
DETQ2 10:23518Punt13–7
ARIQ2 7:06611Punt13–7
DETQ2 4:23777Touchdown20–7
ARIQ2 0:29531Field goal20–10
ARIQ3 15:00624Turnover20–10
DETQ3 13:03522Punt20–10
ARIQ3 10:2139Punt20–10
DETQ3 8:532-7Turnover20–10
ARIQ3 8:0449Turnover on downs20–10
DETQ3 6:02642Turnover on downs20–10
ARIQ3 3:103-3Punt20–10
DETQ3 2:05719Punt20–10
ARIQ4 13:24626Turnover on downs20–10
DETQ4 11:0832Punt20–10
ARIQ4 9:34519Punt20–10
DETQ4 8:35425Punt20–10
ARIQ4 6:48867Field goal20–13
DETQ4 3:48532End of half20–13

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff18/2319921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery231054.61
Jahmyr Gibbs16835.20
Jared Goff362.00
Jameson Williams1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown78751
Sam LaPorta22360
Brock Wright45340
David Montgomery33170
Jameson Williams1390
Tim Patrick1180

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray21/3420711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyler Murray5459.00
James Conner9171.90
Trey Benson284.00
Emari Demercado273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Wilson89640
Marvin Harrison Jr.511641
Greg Dortch36350
Trey McBride36250
Elijah Higgins11110
James Conner1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.33