2026 · Week 5

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

45·21

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jacoby Brissett

State Farm Stadium · closed

Closing spread

DET -5.5

Total

55.5

Model margin

-0.4est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.144EPA / play-0.024
  • 49.9%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.309EPA / dropback+0.021
  • -0.108EPA / rush-0.105
  • 10.3%Explosive rate4.4%
  • +1.18CPOE+0.50
  • 39.7%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 70.4%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
  • 2.92Points / drive1.84
  • 0.7%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 10–9–1 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. ARI are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3DET @ ARI20–13DET
2021 · W15ARI @ DET12–30DET
2020 · W3DET @ ARI26–23DET
2019 · W1DET @ ARI27–27Tie
2018 · W14DET @ ARI17–3DET
2017 · W1ARI @ DET23–35DET
2015 · W5ARI @ DET42–17ARI
2014 · W11DET @ ARI6–14ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–ARI
DETQ1 15:003-7Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:001473Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 5:063-3Punt0–7
ARIQ1 3:3233Punt0–7
DETQ1 1:5430Punt0–7
ARIQ1 0:2148Punt0–7
DETQ2 14:18739Touchdown7–7
ARIQ2 12:2233Punt7–7
DETQ2 10:51447Touchdown14–7
ARIQ2 9:3037Punt14–7
DETQ2 8:29970Touchdown21–7
ARIQ2 4:5031Punt21–7
DETQ2 3:03740Field goal24–7
ARIQ2 0:53514Turnover24–7
ARIQ3 15:00431Missed field goal24–7
DETQ3 12:19563Touchdown31–7
ARIQ3 9:421072Touchdown31–14
DETQ3 4:22874Touchdown38–14
ARIQ3 1:05929Turnover on downs38–14
DETQ4 12:551484Touchdown45–14
ARIQ4 5:031378Touchdown45–21
DETQ4 2:1135Punt45–21
ARIQ4 0:2118End of half45–21

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff19/3027130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs251516.02
Sione Vaki6111.80
Jared Goff111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sam LaPorta55881
Amon-Ra St. Brown611690
Jahmyr Gibbs56560
Jameson Williams24472
Brock Wright11110
Isaac TeSlaa0200

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett29/4729231
Michael Wilson1/1700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremiyah Love12221.80
Jacoby Brissett2199.50
Bam Knight188.00
Tyler Allgeier372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendrick Bourne58700
Trey McBride910661
Elijah Higgins33570
Michael Wilson47300
Reggie Virgil25290
Jalen Brooks27160
Teagan Quitoriano22152
Tyler Allgeier2290
Jacoby Brissett1170
Jeremiyah Love0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.6%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.0%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.60
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.39