Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+11.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Lionsedge mapCardinals
- -0.027EPA / play+0.139
- 45.5%Success rate48.6%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.270
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.044
- 10.4%Explosive rate5.6%
- -2.91CPOE+4.61
- 38.5%Third-down rate46.2%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate40.0%
- 2.20Points / drive2.35
- 1.3%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 10–8–1 since 1999
DET have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+9.16
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+11.38